A few days before the war started, I was closely watching the US10Y because it felt like something was about to happen. The bullish case would have been for yields to drop below 4% and stay there, giving risk assets a small window to outperform. But since 4% has been a key level for years, they had to manufacture a narrative to delay everything and Instead we bounced from 4% to 4.3–4.4%.

Last year, with tariffs, the same shenanigans happened. To delay things, they pushed a narrative while yields were sitting at 4%, followed by tariffs that drove yields up to 4.6%, still respecting a macro downtrend as if the idea is that inflation risk will disappear with no recession this year, no "Black Monday" like everyone is screaming about, and another 2008 is not happening.
Above this level, the Fed might intervene, markets sell off again out of fear (stocks mostly), oil will spike above 100, inflation will persist, and we get a recession. On the other hand, a gradual move down from here would be a more natural market rotation: oil back under 100, lower inflation risk, and markets moving higher.
If you’re betting on a recession, you short crypto and stocks and go long oil and other recessionary assets. If you’re not betting on a recession this year especially ahead of FIFA and the midterms, you go long crypto and stocks, and short oil and recessionary assets, simple.