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Markets don't fear wars as much as they fear uncertainty.
Twenty-two years ago, specifically at the beginning of the Iraq invasion, everyone was waiting for an imminent market collapse. But what happened was a harsh lesson in "anticipating events";
The S&P 500 index bottomed out nine days before the invasion,
only to end the year with gains exceeding 22%.
Even oil, which many expected to surge, fell from $37 to $25 once the "War Premium (War Premium) faded away and clarity emerged.
Markets executed a "V-shaped recovery" before the first military boots touched the ground.
History is repeating itself today in the tensions between Iran and Israel;
Fear dominates the headlines, but the numbers tell us a different story.
Markets price in risks in advance, and as soon as the actual event begins, "uncertainty" starts to fade—something major portfolios always prefer.
Successful investing requires the ability to separate military noise from economic realities.
Geopolitical crises historically have always been buying opportunities,
not reasons to flee.
In the end, fear is the worst financial advisor...
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