#创作者冲榜

Early Morning Plunge and Face-Wash--Bulls May Welcome Short-Term Bottom-Fishing Opportunity

I just said yesterday that the weekend would be a tasteless market with no major swings, but this morning I woke up to get slapped in the face. Bitcoin plunged with a spike drop of 2000 points at dawn, hitting a low around 68200. When I saw the market, I was so scared that I quickly opened my account, went all-in on spot with full position and opened some long positions. Little Fortune God still maintains the previous view that before there's an effective break below 68500 (spikes don't count), the short term is bullish, and the decline may be a good opportunity to bottom-fish.

👉Let's first look at why it dropped this morning:

On the news front, Israel said it would "significantly increase" military strikes on Iran with the United States; the US is sending reinforcements to the Middle East to "open up" the Strait of Hormuz or seize Khark Island, and British nuclear submarines have arrived in the Arabian Sea. In summary, there's a risk of further escalation and spillover of the conflict, which may be the only reason we can find that would cause the market to decline. However, the Iran conflict has evolved to the point where its impact on financial markets, especially the crypto space, has been fully digested. Moreover, since the Iran war broke out, Bitcoin has overall appreciated over 10%, outperforming gold, the US dollar, and other assets in the same period.

👉Therefore, temporary headwinds are insufficient to exert sustained price pressure on Bitcoin. I believe this morning's decline is more likely a major player's wash-out, mainly for these 3 reasons:

First, institutional capital is shifting direction

The subtle changes in capital flows provide solid support for Bitcoin's short-term rebound. The continuous ETF fund outflow trend that persisted for months since November 2025 narrowed significantly to $206 million in February 2026, representing a 94% decline from peak, indicating that institutional selling pressure has weakened substantially. BlackRock and other institutions once saw daily net outflows reach $400 million, but recent data shows that institutional capital outflows have noticeably slowed, with some institutions even beginning modest increases. This contrasts sharply with the situation in early 2026 when US ETFs reversed from "largest buyers" to net sellers.

Second, technical indicators

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's current price is close to key support levels with strong rebound momentum. Bitcoin has halved from its 2025 peak of $126,000 to $66,000, with its Z-score relative to gold already dropping to -1.24, approaching the sensitive zone that would trigger a revenge rally. Historical data shows that when the Z-score indicator falls below -1, Bitcoin often experiences a significant rebound.

Additionally, Bitcoin has strong support around 68500 on the weekly level, which is a position that bulls can hold, while the daily MACD has formed a "death cross." Whether the rule "a dead cross must be followed by a rebound" will validate again is also worth noting.

Third, positive signals from on-chain data

The address group holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin has begun modest accumulation since February 25, 2026, a signal worthy of close attention. Such addresses typically represent professional investors and institutions, and their accumulation behavior often signals an approaching market bottom. "Whales" had sold 170,000 Bitcoin after December 2025, but recent on-chain data shows that whale address selling pressure has noticeably weakened, with some whales even beginning to buy on dips, indicating that the market's short-term selling pressure is nearing its end.

📊Bottom-fishing strategy: Assuming this Bitcoin decline is confirmed as a fake dip, everyone can adopt a staged bottom-fishing strategy with strict position sizing and risk management. First, at Bitcoin's current price, you can enter 10% of your position for testing; when the price breaks below $68,500, add another 20% of your position, and if it breaks the $68,000 mark, stop loss and exit.

What do you think about this morning's decline? Are you currently bullish or bearish? Take a side in the comments~