#加密市场回涨

A (Trump) arrow from Sichuan (Pu) and Yun, ten thousand soldiers and horses come to meet! -- Will the US-Iran war have a grand finale?
From breaking below 68,000 to returning to 71,000, everything took less than an hour! On March 24th, Trump's "Truth Social" tweet ignited the market, bringing a long-awaited broad rally to the crypto market. Bitcoin surged over 3,000 points within 15 minutes, reclaiming above $70,000, and Ethereum briefly approached $2,200. Market sentiment quickly recovered from "extreme fear," with Bitcoin currently closing at $70,910, up 3.91%. As mainstream coins made a strong comeback, funds rapidly flowed out of altcoins. SIREN, which had been hot recently, fell over 50% intraday and now trades near $1.
I. Reasons for the Surge -- What Happened Yesterday
1. Geopolitical conflict shows signs of easing
As the US-Iran war entered its 23rd day with both sides in intense combat, US President Trump suddenly posted on social media, stating that negotiations with Iranian officials had taken place over the past two days, though not with Iran's Supreme Leader. He simultaneously announced a 5-day pause on bombing Iran's power plants and energy facilities. Iran's side firmly denied the US-Iran talks and stated that Iran's stance on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions for ending the conflict remained unchanged. Iran's Fars News Agency reported on the 23rd, citing sources, that claims of negotiations between Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and the US were completely false, with one purpose of fabricating this misinformation being to create conditions for assassinating Kalibaf and sowing division and inciting public sentiment within Iran. Nonetheless, the 5-day halt on bombing Iranian power plants is solid positive news, and the conflict does show signs of de-escalation.
2. Technical pullback touched lower end of oscillation range; market needs a rebound
Before the rebound, market sentiment had hit rock bottom. The Fear and Greed Index had dropped below 10, entering the "extreme fear" zone and hitting a recent low. Bitcoin price also touched the lower end of the 68,000-74,000 oscillation range we repeatedly mentioned, even piercing through it. Without major external news, it's difficult to break out of this oscillation box, and the market has a need to rebound. This may be the fundamental reason Trump's simple statement could ignite the market.
3. Continued institutional capital inflows
Despite retail panic, institutions were "quietly" positioning: Ethereum whales increased holdings. On-chain data shows Ethereum whale activity has become active again, and historically such trends often signal strong price rallies. A well-known company recently purchased 65,341 ETH (approximately $138 million), with total holdings rising to 4.66 million, accounting for 3.86% of Ethereum's total circulating supply. ETF outflow pressure eased: Previously, US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced consecutive net outflows on March 19-20, but recent pressure has eased. Analyst Eliz points out that daily closing prices above $2,190 would be a key trigger point, potentially reversing short-term trends and giving bulls the advantage.
II. What's Next -- Focus on Market Reaction After the 5-Day "Cool-off Period"
Given Trump's promise of a 5-day "ceasefire," within these 5 days risk assets and precious metals markets should have ample time for a rebound. You can start the "countdown"! Meanwhile, we need to monitor whether the US and Iran will make real progress in peace talks after 5 days. If there are no results, the situation could deteriorate. Note that the US is currently deploying ground forces and paratroopers to the Middle East. Should US-Iran talks break down, there's potential for further escalation of hostilities, and the market is expected to decline.
III. Technical Analysis -- Where Are Rebound Targets?
Bitcoin: Watch if 72,000 can effectively break through
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the $70,000 psychological level, with notably improved short-term structure. The rally is still ongoing and has broken through the first weekly resistance (near 71,370). Next, it faces the strong resistance from the 60-day moving average on the daily chart around 71,700 and the 72,000 round number. If successfully broken through, it could challenge the previous high near 76,000. However, note that this is a rebound rather than a reversal; attention should be paid to taking profits on longs. Key support levels to watch in recent days: First support: 69,400; Second support: 68,000; Third support: 67,200.
Ethereum: Watch if 2,197 can effectively break through
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum is also in an uptrend, having already broken through daily resistance near 2,167. Next, we need to observe if it can break through yesterday's rebound high of 2,197. If successfully broken, we can target the previous high near 2,375. Key support levels to watch in recent days: First support: 2,050; Second support: 2,021. On-chain data shows Ethereum whale accumulation signals strengthening—historically, such phases often precede significant price increases. Past cycles show that similar accumulation phases typically deliver substantial gains within the first few months.
IV. My Strategy -- Holding Positions and Waiting for Gains is the Best Approach
Given the market's current strength, I choose to continue holding long positions and spot coins, waiting for further market development. If Bitcoin continuously fails to break through the 72,000 resistance over several days, I'll take profits. For those in cash, you can establish light long positions near 70,000. If the market breaks through 72,000, add to positions on rallies, with stop-loss placed below 69,400.
💡Risk Warning: The market is still in a bear market; the current rebound is not a reversal. Large position chasing is not advisable. Macro uncertainties remain: The Fed's expectations for higher interest rates continue to suppress the crypto market. Trump's habitual flip-flopping may lead to policy reversals on Iran again, affecting subsequent market developments.
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