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WTI OIL below $89. The war trade is unwinding faster than anyone expected.
The pattern is simple:
Every peace signal = oil falls.
Every escalation = oil spikes.
The market is not trading supply/demand right now. It is trading war probability in real time.
WTI went from $67 (pre-war) → $117 peak → now back to $88.82 and falling.
Two paths ahead:
Ceasefire holds + Hormuz opens fully → oil heads toward $75–$80
Talks collapse + blockade escalates → oil spikes back toward $100 fast
Watch the Hormuz ship count tonight. More ships moving = more downside in oil.