I just read a very interesting analysis from team 1011 about the U.S. strategy in the Strait of Hormuz that’s worth discussing.

Basically, Garrett Jin from 1011 points out that although the maritime blockade the United States is implementing is tactically smart, it probably won’t achieve what it aims for. It makes sense when I think about it: in the short term, it works because it directly cuts Iranian oil exports (we’re talking about about 1.7 million barrels per day), and it’s also cheaper than occupying critical infrastructure like Khark Island.

But here’s where it gets interesting. The 1011 analysis highlights that the current blockade isn’t as comprehensive as it seems. It focuses on Iranian ports but doesn’t fully close the strait, so there are still alternative routes that third countries can use. That’s a significant weak point.

What really caught my attention in the 1011 analysis is the conclusion about the broader geopolitical impact. The United States is weakening its image as a guarantor of freedom of navigation, which could alter the global maritime order in ways we don’t fully understand yet.

In summary, what 1011 proposes is that although these measures might reconfigure the balance of power in the short term, it’s very unlikely they will force Iran to concede. On the contrary, they will probably reduce diplomatic margins and prolong the conflict. The market has already priced in the immediate impact of the blockade, but I believe it has not yet fully processed the escalation scenarios that could follow.