I just saw an analysis from JPMorgan that got me thinking: the aluminum market is caught in what they call a "black hole" of supply, and honestly, the situation looks more complicated than many believe.

What happened is quite serious. Iran recently attacked two key refineries in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, causing a capacity loss that is not easy to recover from. The price of aluminum in London has already surpassed $3,600 per ton—the highest level in four years. But here’s the interesting part: JPMorgan is saying this is just the beginning.

The institution issued an official warning to its clients indicating that we are facing the largest supply deficit in over twenty-five years. And their prediction is bold: aluminum prices could reach $4,000 per ton. To put it into perspective, the all-time high was $4,073.50 in 2022 during the Ukraine crisis. So we’re not talking about uncharted territory, but it is a scenario that very few expected so soon.

The tricky part of all this is the very nature of the industry. When an aluminum refinery shuts down, it’s not a matter of turning it back on in a few days. Experts say that full recovery could take at least a year, possibly more. It’s a technical and financial bottleneck that amplifies any supply crisis.

China and Russia are major aluminum producers, but they are practically out of the Western market due to sanctions and tariffs. That means European and American manufacturers are paying much higher prices with no real alternatives. For certain specific products, shortages could be directly impossible to resolve.

What catches my attention is that not long ago, the aluminum market was saturated with supply. In a matter of weeks, everything changed. JPMorgan warns that even if the conflict in the Middle East is resolved tomorrow, the damage is already done. Global supply will face a severe and sustained disruption.

For those of us following these markets, this is not just a number on a screen. It directly affects manufacturing supply chains. And that $4,000 target that seemed distant not long ago? Now it looks quite close. It’s worth paying attention to how this black aluminum crisis evolves in the coming weeks.