Bitcoin's rebound also fails to boost the market... The expectation that it will drop again remains dominant

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have risen about 13% since early April, but no obvious ‘euphoria’ signals have been detected among holders and the overall market. Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland believes this mild reaction could be a sign of ‘market distrust.’

Hyland stated on the 26th (local time) on X (formerly Twitter): “There doesn’t seem to be much excitement or attention. Many people appear to be applying their biases to the outlook.” This suggests that even with the price increase, optimistic sentiment has not spread.

Market consensus leans toward “another dip before October”

Hyland pointed out: “In the broader trend, the market’s expected outcome seems to be that BTC will experience ‘another leg lower’ before October.” Bitcoin fell to $60k in early February, down about 53% from the all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Nevertheless, several participants believe that the ‘cycle bottom’ will form around October 2026.

In fact, according to CoinMarketCap data, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was $77,377, about 13% higher than the level of around $68,000 before April 1. Using the USD/KRW exchange rate (1 USD = 1,477.50 KRW), this is approximately 114.31 million KRW.

Brant and Van der Poppe have differing views on the timing of the bottom and the sustainability of the rebound

Senior trader Peter Brandt mentioned on X on the 24th that Bitcoin might form an ‘investable low’ in September to October. However, he did not assert whether this low would break the February 2026 low, and he has long-term forecasts of reaching $300k to $500k in September to October 2029.

In contrast, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, stated on the 25th: “There is no reason to doubt the continuity of the current rebound.” He said, “If the price clearly breaks above $86k in the coming months, then the low is likely already in,” implying a higher probability that the bottom has already appeared.

“Bottom occurs when ‘everyone is convinced,’ not when ‘everyone thinks it will fall more’”

Hyland interpreted: “Prices are rising, yet bearish forecasts keep appearing, which is a sign of distrust.” This means that in an uptrend, if the market cannot turn optimistic, the ‘trend confirmation’ of the rebound may be delayed, increasing volatility.

On-chain and psychological analysis platform Santiment pointed out from a group psychology perspective: “The true market bottom almost never occurs when the masses are confidently shouting ‘bottomed.’” Santiment noted that, generally, “bottoms form when the consensus is that prices will fall significantly further,” and cautioned that this time, one should not rashly assume the bottom, but instead observe both psychological and position changes.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation - Bitcoin has rebounded about +13% since early April, but overall market euphoria signals are weak, interpreted as a ‘lack of trust’ phase in the rise - Despite a short-term rebound, most participants agree that there may be ‘another leg lower before October’ - From a group psychology perspective, bottoms tend to form when ‘everyone is convinced it will get worse,’ not when ‘everyone is sure it has bottomed,’ so prematurely assuming the bottom carries risks 💡 Strategy points - Watch price levels: if ‘definitively breaking’ $86,000, the scenario of a trend reversal with a bottom formation will be strongly supported - Scenario branches: (1) sustained rebound (trend strengthening) vs (2) reformation of an investable low in September-October, handling both possibilities concurrently is more advantageous - Checklist: Is optimistic sentiment spreading (psychological), on-chain/position changes, if the main resistance level ($86,000) fails to break, volatility may increase - Risk management: in a ‘skeptical rebound,’ it is more suitable to adopt a phased entry strategy with pre-set stop-loss/failure zones rather than chasing the rally 📘 Terminology explanations - euphoria: a state of overheated expectations and surging optimism at the end of a bull market - consensus: the outlook held by the majority of market participants (shared expectation) - another leg lower: continuation of the downtrend, testing lows again with additional decline - investable low: a low point in the price range where subsequent rebounds are relatively more likely, suitable for investment consideration - on-chain: analysis based on blockchain transaction/holding data (wallet movements, trading volume, etc.) 💡 FAQs (FAQ)

Q. What does the phrase ‘another leg lower before October’ specifically mean? It means that even if a short-term rebound occurs, the trend suggests that prices may fall sharply again and retest lows. The article explains that some analysts see September to October as a ‘potential further decline zone’ or ‘a range where an investable low may form.’ Q. Why might prices rise while market sentiment remains not optimistic (not euphoric)? If the market is still influenced by past crashes, distrust the trend, or holds the bias that ‘this rebound is temporary,’ then even with rising prices, sentiment may not catch up. This situation can be viewed as a ‘skeptical rebound,’ with increased volatility due to delayed trend confirmation. Q. Should beginners follow the ‘bottom already in’ view or the ‘still will fall’ view? Instead of betting on one side, it is more prudent to respond based on ‘confirmation signals.’ For example, Van der Poppe believes that if the price clearly breaks above $86,000, the likelihood of a bottom increases; if the breakout fails, there is room for another correction. In other words, it is best to combine specific breakout/breakdown levels, psychological indicators, on-chain data changes, and respond to different scenarios accordingly.

TP AI notes: The language model based on TokenPost.ai has summarized the article. Important details or facts may be omitted or may differ from the original.