The Fed is laying the groundwork for rate cuts. Emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations, and the Fed's monetary policy is nearing a cyclical turning point. Currently, the market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Fed is high. Overall, the conditions for a Fed rate cut have matured, and a new round of easing is imminent. In the future, if the Fed chooses a relatively moderate rate cut mode, the international financial markets may not experience significant fluctuations. However, developing countries and emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations for the Fed's rate cuts and prepare for the worst-case scenario. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 78%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 22%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by November is 29.1%, a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 57.1%, and a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut is 13.8%.