#BTC #BTC 行情分析 tonight, the Bitcoin market will have a key test! Fed Chair Jerome Powell and former Chair Ben Bernanke will hold a closed-door meeting to discuss the direction of monetary policy. This news has caused an uproar in the currency circle, and the market sentiment is highly tense. At 23:00 Beijing time, this heavyweight conference will officially begin, the results of which may have far-reaching consequences for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Powell's "Eagle Claw" and "Dove's Wing"
Powell has been the focus of market attention. His monetary policy stance tends to have a direct impact on Bitcoin's short-term movements. Historical data shows that whenever Powell sends hawkish signals, such as raising interest rates or shrinking his balance sheet, Bitcoin falls by nearly 20% on average in 30 days. Last year, for example, he said that "the government does not support Bitcoin", which directly led to the evaporation of $8 billion from the market capitalization. However, in March of this year, he sent a dovish signal (slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes), and bitcoin skyrocketed by nearly 50% in two weeks.
Bernanke's "stealth bomb":
Although Bernanke has said less about cryptocurrency, his academic research and policy recommendations as a former chairman of the Federal Reserve are still influential. His recent paper on financial stability has sparked heated discussions in academic circles and may provide theoretical support for future monetary policy.
Three major risk warnings:
1. Interest rate risk: If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain a high interest rate policy, pledged funds in the DeFi field may face a large-scale withdrawal, and the outflow is expected to be as high as $20 billion. This will have a direct impact on market liquidity, putting pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
2. Regulatory risks: The new chairman of the SEC said that he will re-examine crypto ETF applications, but may add a "China wall" type of regulatory measures. On the surface, it may seem positive, but in fact, it may increase the cost of compliance and limit market development.
3. Hacking risk: Market analysts generally believe that if the meeting releases hawkish signals (such as continuing to raise interest rates sharply), Bitcoin may quickly fall below the key support level of $34,000; If dovish signals are released (such as controllable inflation and slowing down interest rate hikes), it is expected to pull up the shock!