Today, Bitcoin continues its rebound momentum, initially holding steady above $74,000, achieving eight consecutive daily positive candles, with market sentiment showing obvious improvement. However, it needs to be clearly understood that the current market action remains a deep oversold rebound within the context of a larger cycle bearish trend. The daily MA200 is located at $93,950, and the yearly moving average is at $98,078. The price shows a massive negative divergence with these levels, meaning this is not a trend reversal, but rather a probing attack on key resistance zones.

As mentioned yesterday, the upper levels must face strong resistance at $74,000, $80,000, and $85,000—these are the short-side defense lines since April 2025 and the "ceiling" that determines the medium-term direction. Regarding downside support, $72,000 has shifted from resistance to the first psychological support level, with the intraday bulls-bears dividing line at $71,500. If Bitcoin unexpectedly breaks below $69,000, the short-term rebound structure will be invalidated, and the market will return to the larger cycle downtrend.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows price remains above the EMA55 moving average, but momentum indicators have entered overbought territory, while the 1-hour chart clearly displays divergence between price and volume. Various signs indicate weakening bullish momentum and insufficient confidence. Notably, the current price is near a 6-week high; without volume-driven breakout through resistance zones, it could easily form a short-term top. In the derivatives market, although funding rates have turned positive, open interest has simultaneously risen, intensifying the bulls-bears contest.

Currently, BTC is at a critical price level. Whether volume-driven breakout or stagnation followed by decline requires patient waiting for K-line signals—do not blindly speculate and enter positions recklessly.