Currently, there are two relatively important fundamental factors: one is the escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran, and the other is Powell's hawkish remarks. Let me start with the conflict. Although the IEA released oil to lower prices, Iran is preparing to escalate the war. The market is quite worried about the impact on industry and energy, causing oil prices to rise again. Currently, WTI crude is back to $99, and it may surge to $100 tomorrow. Although Powell didn't explicitly mention oil prices' impact,

he did acknowledge that rising oil prices could push up inflation. While this is already the Fed's expectation, investors will still find it troubling. Iran's resilience may have exceeded Trump's imagination. Although Trump keeps saying he can end the war soon, there are still no signs of an end in sight, let alone the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Powell denied the possibility of rate hikes in the short term, he basically agreed with the expectation of at least one rate cut within the year, and even believes that AI has increased data center demand and pushed up inflation, creating another reason for no near-term rate cuts. Besides, there are tariffs; he actually thinks the war's impact may be short-term. The key is still to watch the second half of the year; the first half has truly been painful.

Looking back at BTC data, under the dual pressure of oil prices and Powell's comments today, BTC price experienced downside volatility, which is quite interesting. Those who were talking about a bull return yesterday are saying the bear market arrived today. Actually, the main narrative now is still the volatile market brought by war. When war escalates and oil prices rise, the market becomes sluggish; conversely, the market gains some vitality.