3.19 Thursday Midday Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve's early morning interest rate decision maintained the benchmark rate unchanged, keeping the rate corridor at 3.5%-3.75%, a result basically in line with market expectations. The key focus is that the latest dot plot still only projects one rate cut for the year, while raising inflation estimates, indicating the Fed remains highly vigilant about energy price increases, geopolitical risks, and U.S. inflation stickiness.

Powell's remarks overall leaned neutral with a slightly hawkish bias. He did not release a clear interest rate cut timeline, but repeatedly emphasized "still need to wait for more data confirmation," particularly mentioning that recent oil price increases could push inflation higher again. This means short-term liquidity easing expectations have been suppressed. Markets originally expected more dovish signals, but following the remarks, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened, with risk asset sentiment clearly cooling.

For the crypto sector, this "holding position but not rushing toward easing" stance will keep Bitcoin and Ethereum under short-term pressure. Bitcoin declined following the news, indicating high-level funds are taking profits, with short-term trading likely continuing to oscillate around sentiment levels; Ethereum, with greater volatility elasticity, typically faces stronger selling pressure than Bitcoin. If markets cannot quickly recapture key resistance zones, the trend will likely continue with initial washout followed by directional selection. However, as long as rate cut expectations are not completely undermined, there remains potential for capital reflow after pullbacks.

BTC Operation Suggestion: Oscillation range 70700-71500, focus on selling high and buying low
ETH Operation Suggestion: Oscillation range 2160-2230, focus on selling high and buying low