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In past cycles, high-market-cap meme tokens frequently appeared in the market, but they've notably declined in the current phase. Common explanations focus on liquidity or market sentiment, but I prefer to understand this phenomenon from the perspective of capital structure functionality.
A possible framework is: some high-market-cap memes are not merely the result of price speculation, but objectively serve the function of capital path reconstruction (wash) and repricing.
Through early concentrated pumps, liquidity creation, and multi-account position transfers, capital from complex origins gets "market-expressed" through on-chain trading and price fluctuations, thereby completing a path reinterpretation.
This mechanism was viable in the past, relying on two prerequisites:
1) Limited on-chain tracking capabilities, with opaque address association and capital flows
2) Narrative scarcity, where single tokens can absorb high-intensity liquidity pressure
But these two conditions are currently changing. Mature on-chain analysis tools make capital paths easier to trace back; simultaneously, narrative oversupply causes liquidity to be diverted across multiple tracks, making it difficult for single memes to sustain extremely high valuations and capital density.
In this context, the AI track provides a structure with higher "absorption capacity":
Its valuation anchors are looser, expectation space is larger, and narrative explanations are more extensible, giving it stronger capacity for capital absorption and revaluation from a capital perspective.
So in my view, the so-called "decline in big dog memes" may not simply mean the market is running out of money or players are decreasing.
Rather, it's likely that part of the capital reorganization function previously undertaken by meme coins is being substituted by the AI track, which has higher narrative density and stronger valuation elasticity.