Today's A-share market crash reasons:


It's not fundamentals that deteriorated, it's "fixed income+" fund capital fleeing, triggering a chain selling spree.
1. The core point in one sentence: unstable overseas situation → wealth management/"fixed income+" fund panic redemptions → public funds forced to sell stocks, convertible bonds, ETFs → tech, small-cap, and high-valuation sectors hit first, this is the only truth about today's market.
2. You must understand this capital chain: the surge at the beginning of the year wasn't driven by retail investors at all, it was caused by large-scale inflows of "fixed income+" funds, wealth management, and insurance capital. As the stock market rallied consecutively, everyone thought it stabilized, and bank wealth management, insurance, and "fixed income+" funds went crazy absorbing money (check their historic-level subscriptions in January). In theory, "fixed income+" fund managers don't possess professional pick-stock abilities for secondary markets, so they can only buy public fund heavy-holdings, convertible bonds, and industry ETFs (chemicals, tech, micro-cap), directly pushing valuations to the sky. This is typical liability-driven appreciation.
3. Why do they flee fastest at the slightest disturbance? Because the underlying liabilities of these funds are extremely unstable: people buying wealth management have low risk tolerance, they complain with every dip and redeem in panic. Fund managers must cut positions to protect NAV and their jobs. What do they cut? The most liquid, heaviest positions, most expensive valuations: tech growth stocks, small-cap stocks, high-price convertible bonds, popular ETFs. This is why tech, CPO, optical modules, chips, and convertible bonds got hammered today.
4. The convertible bond market has sent the scariest signal: high-price convertible bonds saw maximum drawdowns of 15.54% this round, ranking 3rd in the past 10 years, far exceeding drawdowns of micro-cap and small-cap stocks. In normal years, convertible bond volatility ≈ 1/2 of small-cap stocks, but now convertible bonds are falling harder than small-caps. This is institutional capital squeezing out.
5. Two ETFs directly exposed institutional flight:
① Convertible Bond ETF (largest institutional base)
Single-day net outflow yesterday: 1.26 billion
Net outflows in previous 4 days: 1 billion+
This is thousand-billion-level "fixed income+" capital retreating.
② Chemical ETF (institutional heavy-holdings)
From 2 billion → peak 37 billion
Three-day net outflow last Wednesday: 1.8 billion
Yesterday alone: 1.7 billion
Who's selling? The "fixed income+" funds, wealth management, and insurance capital that rushed in at year-start.
6. Complete chain: US-Iran conflict escalates → uncertainty spikes → wealth management/"fixed income+" funds face redemptions → public funds forced to cut positions → tech/convertible bonds/small-caps/ETFs get hammered → broad market decline. Summary of today's market: it's not that logic collapsed, capital collapsed; not that companies underperform, but the liability side can't hold on...
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