As of March 21, 2026, XAUUSDT (spot gold) is experiencing a deep pullback following the Federal Reserve's hawkish decision. Pressured by expectations of "higher rates for longer," gold prices have broken below the key psychological level of $5,000, with short-term trends biased downward.

📉 Estimated lowest price this month

Core support zone: $4,500 - $4,550

• Current price has touched near $4,500 (March 19 low of $4,502.58), which is a resonance zone of the 100-day moving average and the February low.

• If macro sentiment does not improve, the remaining time this month may see repeated tests within this zone, with a break below $4,500 targeting $4,400.

🔄 Will there be a rebound and target

There will be a rebound, but it is technical retracement, not a trend reversal.

• Rebound trigger: RSI has entered oversold territory (<30), and short profit-taking is likely to trigger a rebound.

• Rebound target: $4,800 - $4,900. This is the dense zone where previous support converts to resistance, and also the 50-day moving average pressure level. If it cannot break through $4,900, the rebound ends.

⚠️ Will it continue to break lower

The key is defending the $4,500 level.

• Hold: Consolidate and form a base between $4,500-$4,800, awaiting April data guidance.

• Break lower: If it loses $4,500 and closes below on the daily chart, the next target will point to $4,400 (January launch point), when deeper adjustments should be vigilant.

Core logic: The current decline is mainly due to delayed rate-cut expectations (rising holding costs), not the disappearance of risk-off logic. Operationally, light positions are recommended, focusing on the effectiveness of $4,500 support. $XAU