What is happening with Trump and Iran: millions of people are watching the development of the situation

This is one of the most significant international situations requiring serious attention. In recent months, the political confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has reached a level where America has amassed one of the largest military formations in the Middle East in the past two decades. Two aircraft carrier strike groups, submarines, warships, and hundreds of combat aircraft remain deployed in the region. This confirms serious intentions — it’s not rhetoric but a real demonstration of military power.

To understand how this tension developed, we need to go back a few months. In the summer of 2025, the U.S. conducted a large-scale operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, known as Operation Midnight Hammer. This move was driven by concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. However, instead of easing tensions, the situation only intensified. At the same time, internal unrest began in Iran — the government increased suppression of protests, and diplomatic channels froze.

What the U.S. leadership is doing now

The president and his advisors remain uncertain about how to develop their further strategy. At times, the administration talks about negotiations on the nuclear deal. At other moments, rhetoric hints at broader goals — up to regime change in Tehran. This oscillation between strategies creates an atmosphere of uncertainty, noted by analysts at The Economist. According to their assessment, the range of possible actions varies from surgical strikes on specific nuclear sites to operations aimed at eliminating the country’s top military-political leadership.

Global economic risks

The potential escalation of the conflict could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime route through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes — oil and gas prices will soar on global markets. Already, amid current tensions, oil markets reacted with a price increase of over 5% just on fears of such a scenario. Moreover, unlike previous regional conflicts, modern Iran possesses advanced weaponry, a long coastline, and the capacity to cause significant damage to U.S. military bases in the region.

Diplomacy on the brink

Despite the amassed military power, the door for negotiations remains slightly open, though very narrow. In recent months of last year and the beginning of this one, there were attempts at unofficial contacts, but progress remains minimal. Unofficial sources indicate that both sides remain rigid. The main uncertainty is how far the U.S. leadership is willing to go in its actions. This uncertainty itself becomes a risk factor in global financial markets.

The current situation resembles standing on the edge of a cliff, with the world balancing between the possibility of constructive dialogue and the risk of open confrontation. Every step in the region is carefully monitored by financial markets, political analysts, and world leaders. How the situation unfolds in the coming weeks and months will determine not only the fate of the region but also the stability of the global energy system.