The recent Fed meeting minutes reveal significant changes in inflation forecasts.

Notes from Federal Reserve meetings show a significant shift in the outlook on the pace of inflation reduction. According to Odaily, these minutes reflect increasing concerns by the Fed about the progress in controlling prices in the economy.

Nick Timiraos Warns in January Minutes

Nick Timiraos, known as the “official voice” of the Fed, commented that previous forecasts from meetings up to December 2025 estimated inflation would fall to 2% by 2027. However, the December meeting minutes adjusted this target by one year, to 2028. In the January 2026 minutes, the Fed did not specify a schedule for reaching the 2% inflation goal, only noting that the figures had “increased slightly” compared to the previous month’s estimates.

The 2% Inflation Goal Delayed

The absence of any clear projections in the most recent minutes indicates the level of uncertainty the Fed is facing. Instead of providing a specific timeline, the organization only noted that inflation data remains higher than earlier forecasts. This reflects the reality that the path to controlling inflation may be longer than initially expected.

Impact of Tariffs and Recovery Outlook

In this meeting’s minutes, the Fed also discussed the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The forecast suggests that the effects of these measures are expected to diminish around mid-year, potentially allowing inflation to resume its downward trend. However, this observation was not included in the January minutes, adding to the uncertainty about the next steps in monetary policy.