**RRPGAw**

Bitcoin has retaken the $71,500 level, and the current crisis has been alleviated. Implied volatility for all major tenors is rapidly declining, now back to levels seen a week ago.
The recently positive VRP has quickly turned negative. Within one day, the monthly VRP shifted from +2% to -9%, and the expanding negative premium trend indicates that market expectations for future volatility are lower than current levels.
The crisis seems to be over, but the extreme weakness in the crypto market during the first quarter of this year has not yet reversed, and market confidence remains very weak

This Wednesday, there will be the US February CPI data, on Thursday the unemployment figures, and on Friday the January PCE Price Index, three important macroeconomic data points.
However, in terms of actual impact, the military actions by the US and Israel against Iran triggering the Strait of Hormuz are the macro events truly affecting the market.
Since last week, the implied volatility of major maturities has shown a significant increase. Currently, BTC's short-term IV has reached over 65%, and ETH's short-term IV has risen to over 80%, both reaching recent highs.
Market expectations

Bulk bearish positions account for 30% today, with a total notional value of $336 million. The main transactions are weekend-expiring out-of-the-money put options and end-of-month puts below $60,000. Market sentiment is relatively fragile, and once a correction begins, the bearish momentum will significantly increase.

【March 6 Options Expiration Data】
3.2 million BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.69, the maximum pain point at $69,000, and a notional value of $2.3 billion.
1.84 million ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.85, the maximum pain point at $1,950, and a notional value of $380 million.
The crypto market experienced a rebound this week, with Bitcoin stabilizing above the $70,000 mark and currently aiming to break through $75,000. However, based on options market data, selling call options has become the mainstream trading activity in the past two days. Altho

Although the cryptocurrency price hit a new high today, the implied volatility (IV) of major-term options and expiration options did not increase; instead, it decreased compared to when it broke through 70,000.
In the past week, VRP has dropped significantly, declining nearly 20% across all maturities. This divergence generally indicates that institutions believe the rebound has come to an end and momentum is waning.

The rebound is facing resistance, and the selling pressure with a bullish outlook is strong. Currently, the implied volatility of end-date options has dropped from over 65% to around 55%, a 10% decrease in one day.
The current rebound is relatively weak, with options positions this week only accounting for 6.6% of the total holdings. Market trading activity is very low, and the crypto market still needs to consolidate.

📢 Weekly Trading Data Update 📈
From February 23 to March 1, the nominal trading volume achieved through block trades was $153,229,940 (approximately $153.23 million).
Top 5 block trades by transaction volume last week. Thank you all for your support.

【February 27 Options Expiration Data】
116,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.76. The maximum pain point is $75,000, with a notional value of $7.9 billion.
206,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77. The maximum pain point is $2,200, with a notional value of $980 million.
The crypto market remains sluggish. In early February, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, and throughout February, the market has been weakly oscillating above $60,000.
Tomorrow, options accounting for 20% of total holdings, totaling nearly $9 billion, will expire. B

【February 13 Options Expiration Data】
38,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71. The maximum pain point is $74,000, with a notional value of $2.5 billion.
215,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.82. The maximum pain point is $2,100, with a notional value of $410 million.
The crypto market continues to bleed and decline, with the speed of the maximum pain point decreasing rapidly. Today, options accounting for 9% of total open interest are expiring, totaling nearly $2.9 billion.
This week, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decre

The bulk has already accounted for 75% of the current trading volume, especially with bullish options reaching a recent peak. 1.7 billion USD accounts for nearly half of today's trading, mainly consisting of deep out-of-the-money options with medium to long-term maturities.
We can consider that some long-term players have already begun positioning for this year's rebound. Based on past experience, after a period of consolidation and bottoming out, the market will initiate a rebound.
Currently, the market is still in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to wait for a more certain

Put options still dominate the market, with over $1 billion in large-scale put option transactions today, accounting for 37%, primarily out-of-the-money options between 60K and 65K.
In terms of expiration, the main focus is on next month and March medium-term options, indicating that institutions hold a negative outlook on medium to long-term trends, with a strong expectation of a bear market within one to two months.

Market conditions have stabilized somewhat, with the implied volatility (IV) of the main maturities showing a significant decline. However, the actual volatility (RV) over the past week remains relatively high, resulting in a record average decrease of 45% in the one-week VRP.
Looking at the specific data, it has dropped from last week's +20% level to the current -25% level, a relatively rare phenomenon.
This indicates that the market is rapidly reducing its volatility expectations, perhaps too quickly, as Bitcoin's volatility tends to be highly clustered. Institutions are somewhat overly

ETH broke below $2200 without resistance. Yesterday, I mentioned that large investors are continuously increasing their holdings of put options, even very low strike puts. This positioning continues today, but trading volume is now concentrated on March expirations with $70,000 to $80,000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) is rising rapidly, and skew is quickly turning negative. Large investors are shifting from short-term bets to medium- and long-term outlooks. The bearish sentiment is beginning to materialize from concerns. Based on my years of experience, ETH is very likely to test the $2000

Overall, volatility has increased significantly, and at the same time, skew has hit a new low. Large traders in the options market are worried that the downward trend of BTC may not stop. The high trading volume of put options continues, with all top five being puts, mainly at the $70,000 strike price. The bearish sentiment remains strong, with even the fourth place being the March $55,000 put!

📢 Weekly trading data update 📈 From January 19 to January 25, the nominal trading volume achieved through block trades was $163,801,907 ($16.38 million). The top 5 block trades by transaction volume last week. Thank you all for your support.

📢 Weekly Trading Data Update 📈
From January 12 to January 18, the nominal trading volume achieved through block trades was $142,528,550 ($143 million).
Top 5 block trades by transaction volume last week. Thank you for your support.

Bitcoin successfully broke through the $95,000 resistance level, leaving the nearly two-month consolidation range. Since falling below this key level in mid-November, Bitcoin has been oscillating at low levels.
Ethereum experienced a larger increase, but its trend is not as strong as BTC, remaining within the $3,400 consolidation range.
Block trades also reflect this point: Bitcoin's block transactions reached $1.7 billion, accounting for over 40% of the total daily volume, while Ethereum's block trades were only $130 million, making up just 20%. The market is clearly more bullish on Bitco