AI Prosperity Turns into an Economic Omen? Citrini Research Warns of the 2028 "Global Intelligence Crisis" Explosion

As AI creates unprecedented prosperity figures, it is quietly eroding the foundations of the human economy. Renowned institution Citrini Research has released a new report warning: a global economic storm triggered by “overly intelligent” systems is sweeping through the white-collar class.
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Table of Contents

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• The hidden concerns behind productivity surges: “Ghost GDP” and consumption contraction
• The spiral of white-collar layoffs: software and middleman industries hit hardest
• From industry crises to financial tsunamis: chain reactions in private credit and mortgage markets
• Policy shifts and the race against time: moving toward a “smart abundance” new system

While the world is immersed in the productivity frenzy brought by artificial intelligence (AI), Citrini Research has published an in-depth report issuing a startling warning. Titled “The Global Intelligent Crisis of 2028,” the report uses a retrospective view of 2028 to simulate an extreme scenario: “The more successful AI becomes, the more the economy collapses.” It points out that although AI significantly boosts productivity, large-scale displacement of white-collar workers and the erosion of traditional business moats could ultimately trigger a systemic financial crisis affecting real estate and credit markets.

The hidden concerns behind productivity surges: “Ghost GDP” and consumption contraction

The report describes that by the end of 2026, despite impressive gains in the S&P 500 and nominal GDP figures, the real economy was already undercurrents of instability. As companies redirected the cost savings from reduced human labor into AI computing power, wages for the white-collar class stagnated or even declined. Economists observe what they call “Ghost GDP”: although data shows increased output, wealth is concentrated among a few AI compute holders and does not circulate into the real economy. Since machines do not consume, the human consumption economy—which accounts for 70% of US GDP—began to rapidly dry up, with the velocity of money plunging to historic lows.

The spiral of white-collar layoffs: software and middleman industries hit hardest

The core of this crisis lies in the “human intelligence displacement spiral.” The report notes that once AI possesses strong coding and automation capabilities, companies no longer need expensive software subscriptions or middleman consulting services. For example, in the SaaS (Software as a Service) industry, when clients cut their workforce by 15% due to AI efficiency gains, their software licensing revenue also declines, creating a negative feedback loop of “AI cannibalizing its own revenue.”

Furthermore, industries that profit from eliminating information asymmetry or streamlining processes—such as real estate brokers, insurance renewals, delivery platforms, and financial advisors—find their moats evaporating in the face of AI agents. When AI agents can automatically find the cheapest options for consumers and avoid various fees, traditional profit models are squeezed to zero.

From industry crises to financial tsunamis: chain reactions in private credit and mortgage markets

As white-collar unemployment spreads from the software sector to the entire service economy, the financial system begins to collapse. The rapid expansion of “private credit” over the past decade, heavily invested in SaaS companies now worth nothing, faces a wave of defaults, impacting life insurance companies holding these bonds.

More severely, the US mortgage market—totaling $13 trillion—faces peril. The report warns that even borrowers with high credit scores (e.g., FICO 780) could see their income halved or vanish as AI displaces their jobs, turning these “prime loans” into bad assets. The 2028 scenario shows housing prices in tech hubs like San Francisco and Seattle falling by double digits, signaling the start of a asset re-pricing event comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

Policy shifts and the race against time: moving toward a “smart abundance” new system

Faced with declining tax revenues due to shrinking labor, governments are under dual pressure of fiscal deficits and social unrest. The report mentions that the U.S. is considering the “Transition Economy Act,” which proposes taxing AI inference compute power and establishing a “AI Prosperity Fund” to directly distribute the benefits of intelligent infrastructure to households.

The report concludes that humanity is experiencing a profound “smart premium correction.” Once scarce human intelligence has become cheap and abundant, the current economic system must be reconstructed before it collapses.

Although the scenarios depicted are unsettling, the authors emphasize that these are merely simulations meant to alert investors and society: amid the wave of AI revolution, we still have time to reassess asset allocations and actively plan for a more inclusive future.