CryptoQuant projects bitcoin may find a bottom around $53,600, the cryptocurrency's current realized price representing the aggregate onchain cost basis of all market participants, according to a report released Wednesday by the firm's head of research Julio Moreno. The analysis comes as bitcoin fell to around $59,000 last week, leaving it just 9% above the realized price level, though it has since recovered to trade around $62,150. Historically, bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle, with the level briefly breached during the November 2022 FTX-driven selloff before recovery.
Bitcoin Demand Contracts by 652,000 in Largest Weekly Drop Since January 2022
CryptoQuant estimates total bitcoin demand, combining speculative perpetual futures activity and apparent spot demand, fell by 652,000 bitcoin last week, marking the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. Both futures and spot demand deteriorated sharply as bitcoin broke below $60,000, triggering long liquidations and accelerating spot selling, Moreno wrote in the report.
Longer-term demand indicators have also weakened. CryptoQuant's one-year apparent demand growth has turned negative and is declining below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024, indicating fewer bitcoin buyers today than a year ago.
ETF Demand Falls to Negative 74,000 Bitcoin in 30-Day Period
Thirty-day ETF demand growth has fallen to negative 74,000 bitcoin, the weakest reading since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Rather than absorbing selling pressure, ETFs are now contributing to net supply expansion as investors reduce exposure, according to the report.
Realized Losses Remain Below Historical Capitulation Levels
Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 bitcoin over the past 30 days, compared with 400,000 bitcoin when bitcoin first fell below $60,000 in February 2026 and 1.2 million bitcoin during the November 2022 FTX-driven market bottom, Moreno noted.
"The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000, and has not yet reached the psychological threshold of forced or panic selling," Moreno wrote in the report.
Historically, major bitcoin bottoms have occurred after heavy selling and seller exhaustion. Moreno said realized losses have not yet reached those levels.
FAQ
What is bitcoin's realized price according to CryptoQuant?
Bitcoin's realized price is currently $53,600, representing the aggregate onchain cost basis of all market participants. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno stated in a Wednesday report that historically, bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below this realized price level in each major bear cycle.
How much did bitcoin demand fall last week?
CryptoQuant estimates total bitcoin demand, combining speculative perpetual futures activity and apparent spot demand, fell by 652,000 bitcoin last week. This represents the largest weekly contraction since January 2022, according to the firm's analysis.
