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75% shutdown probability looming! Can Bitcoin withstand a new round of "liquidity winter"?
Polymarket data shows that the probability of a government shutdown in the US before January 31 has surged to 75%-78%, with bets exceeding $13.3 million. This follows the record-breaking 43-day full shutdown in October 2025, as Washington once again faces a fiscal deadlock.
But unlike last year, this time it may be a "partial shutdown"—6 out of 12 spending bills have been signed into law. However, the market does not seem to relax its vigilance: Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $97,000 to around $86,000