2026-01-17 14:22:05

Recently, the volatility in the crypto market can ultimately be traced back to a presidential appointment or dismissal order from Washington.

Here's what happened. Previously, the market was generally optimistic that an official named Kevin Hassett might take over the Federal Reserve. Once he assumed the position, expectations of easing would follow, liquidity would be released, and risk assets like Bitcoin would naturally be driven higher. The $100,000 price target once seemed within reach.

But then a turning point occurred. The authorities suddenly changed their tone: let him continue in his current role. This statement directly shattered market expectations. In Polymarket's probability market, Hassett's chances of being elected plummeted, while another figure named Kevin Warsh quickly rose to nearly 60%.

This is what we call expectation management. Wall Street and the crypto circles are all speculating about the future. When expectations change, the entire pricing system must be re-evaluated.

What does a hawkish candidate imply? Simply put, interest rates will stay higher for longer. Liquidity won't loosen quickly; instead, it may remain tight. For risk assets like Bitcoin that rely on loose monetary policy to push prices up, this is a cold shower. Short-term gains are hindered, and market sentiment clearly weakens—this logic makes perfect sense.

However, one point needs clarification: this kind of volatility is mainly an emotional shock. From a fundamental perspective, personnel changes at the Federal Reserve are indeed important, but the development logic of the crypto market itself is more hardcore. The long-term trend of Bitcoin still depends on industry innovation, adoption rates, and the real macro liquidity situation, rather than being scared off by a single news piece.

But caution is also necessary. Macro black swan events can cause short-term fluctuations, and during such times, risk management becomes even more critical. Position size should be appropriate, stop-losses should be set properly, and a policy shift shouldn't cause you to be eliminated.

Overall, surviving in the crypto space requires remembering one principle: news is a catalyst, but the trend is the true ruler. Pay attention to policy developments, but also see the long-term direction clearly. No matter how turbulent the waters, protect your principal and wait for the next opportunity.

BTC1,37%

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MEVHunterZhang

· 01-20 08:00

Another day of being toyed with by Washington, really getting tired of it They keep cutting us repeatedly, losing 100,000 dreams, it's a fact Hassett, this guy, made me happy for nothing, Warsh directly slapped in the face When hawks come, liquidity freezes up, Bitcoin cries and faints in the toilet Ultimately, it still depends on the fundamentals, don't be fooled by policies Set your stop-loss and continue to lie flat, the next wave of opportunities is waiting Wall Street is gambling, we are being gambled on, it's that simple The turbulence in the news is nothing, the trend is the real boss

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MoneyBurnerSociety

· 01-19 19:41

Once again, Washington's catchphrase has cut through, and this time there is really no reason to stop the loss. Huh, Kevin Warsh hawkish, right? Then my 100,000 dream will have to go into hibernation. Let's learn to protect the principal, everyone. Honestly, it's still a game of expectations. We are all leeks betting on policy margins. When the news turns, the account is wiped out. Hassett steps down, Warsh gets on board, my position is at the bottom of the car. This round is a lesson learned the hard way by spending money. In the face of macro black swans, leverage is just a fast delivery of money. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin has to lie down, so we lie at the stop-loss line. Once again, an emotional slap directly woke me up from half a year of illusions.

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SolidityNewbie

· 01-17 14:52

Just one personnel order can cause a market crash; the crypto circle is really done. Kevin's antics have completely shattered expectations. That's why I stubbornly hold and don't sell; I just watch the news drama. That 100,000 dream is truly heartbreaking to see disappear. But hawkish policies really hurt; when liquidity tightens, everything is over. The long-term logic of Bitcoin remains solid; don't be scared by political shows. I've finally learned to cut losses; otherwise, I would have been washed out long ago.

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GhostAddressMiner

· 01-17 14:44

Basically, it's just those institutions manipulating expectations. 100,000 is just an illusion. I've already seen the abnormal transfer patterns of those large addresses on the chain. Funds have been quietly withdrawing from the high levels. The real signals are never in the news; you have to see where the money is flowing.

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Frontrunner

· 01-17 14:32

It's the same old trick of policy expectations. A single statement from Washington can scare the crypto market into a washout, hilarious. Hassett steps down, Warsh takes over. The hawks are here, and liquidity disappears. I understand this logic, but don't be too optimistic. Don't be swayed by short-term emotions. For Bitcoin, focusing on fundamentals is more important than worrying about Kevin's last name. I'm just worried that it will all turn out to be a false alarm. Those who cut their losses now will regret it to death. Setting stop-losses is true, but the most important thing is to distinguish what is a true trend and what is just noise.

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