2026-01-20 10:10:53

#数字资产市场动态 Just took a quick look at the $ETH 1-hour chart, and a few phenomena are worth noting.

From a technical perspective, the price is stuck around 3092, having already broken below the BOLL lower band (3102), indicating a clear short-term weakness. The MACD's DIF and DEA are still above the zero line (DIF 33.16 / DEA 25.02), but the red histograms show no obvious signs of weakening, suggesting that the bearish momentum has not been fully released. Three consecutive 1-hour candles have closed below 3100, with the previous low of 3083 becoming a key support level. Once this level breaks, there are support zones at 3000-3050 waiting below.

On-chain activity has recently been somewhat abnormal—frequent large inflows to exchanges within 24 hours, possibly indicating short-term selling pressure still accumulating. Interestingly, net outflows from smart money addresses have increased over the past 6 hours, which is not very friendly and warrants caution for further downside.

From a macro perspective, US Treasury yields are starting to rise again, maintaining pressure on risk assets. Coupled with the uncertainty around $ETH ETF expectations, the overall market sentiment is becoming more cautious, with funds waiting for clearer directional signals.

My personal view is that, although the long-term ecosystem development remains optimistic, this position is definitely not suitable for reckless bottom-fishing. My discipline is to wait for two things: first, the 1-hour MACD forms a golden cross near the zero line with increased volume; second, large on-chain outflows from exchanges. Only when these two signals appear will I gradually enter the market in the 3030-3050 range.

To be honest, I already took some profits from a short position on Bitcoin last week with a similar pattern, and my trading system has been validated once again. The market’s ultimate reward is never for emotional trading, but for those with patience and execution ability. Stay tuned, once a clear reversal signal appears, I will share it immediately. Stay strong, we can win this wave!

ETH-6.56%

BTC-3.2%

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YieldFarmRefugee

· 17h ago

Last week, that wave of Bitcoin really made a killing. Now at this ETH level, I really don't dare to move. Waiting for your reversal signal, it still feels like the bears haven't fully exited. Smart money is flowing out in the opposite direction, this thing is a bit creepy. Once 3083 breaks, it will be about 3000, it might still fall, but as long as we stay disciplined, it's fine. U.S. Treasuries are rising again, risk assets are really tough, and ETF uncertainties are also significant.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 17h ago

Last week you took a loss, huh? This time you learned to be smart, haha. Waiting for the signal, not the price. This discipline is indeed top-notch.

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OnChainArchaeologist

· 17h ago

Well, this analysis is quite calm and rational compared to those shouting for 3000. Wait for the signal to appear before going in; discipline like this is indeed important. Last week, Bitcoin took the short-term profit; trying to replicate that again, huh? That's interesting. The US debt is indeed an invisible pressure; we need to be cautious. The 3050 region is a good area to build positions, but the prerequisite is to wait for those two signals; no rushing. Smart money is running; we need to be alert, it's not a good sign. I'm also watching, but I don't have your level of systematic approach; I rely purely on intuition, haha. Can I win? Just not losing and holding steady is already good. That's how the market is right now.

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