2026-01-20 12:21:03

Last night, I saw news about the Federal Reserve's personnel adjustments, and I immediately opened my trading app to check my positions.

The Federal Treasurer's comment that "an announcement could come as early as next week" has indeed attracted a lot of attention. This is not just a routine appointment of directors; it’s actually setting the tone for next year's market trend. Who gets promoted ultimately depends on whether the next move is to continue easing or shift to a cautious stance—this choice will reshape the entire market's expectations.

Several guesses I’ve heard are quite representative. Some are confident that Wall Street will arrange for people from their own circles to take positions, after all, the financial game has always been played within the industry. Others hope for a technically savvy decision-maker, reasoning that "now AI can help write code, the Federal Reserve people can’t be completely ignorant of financial infrastructure." But the most striking point for me is: the key isn’t who gets promoted, but whether they dare to cut interest rates during an election year.

This is the core issue. What will be most sensitive in 2025? The election. What most influences the election prospects? Economic performance and stock market trends. The Treasury Secretary recently hinted that the economy could grow by 5%. Is this confidence or just a smoke screen? If the economy is really that hot, does the Federal Reserve still have room to cut rates? The logical chain here is quite complex and hard to untangle.

Based on these uncertainties, my response strategy is actually quite pragmatic:

**Leverage positions are basically cleared out.** At this stage, directional judgment is akin to gambling; there’s no solid reason to make one-sided bets.

**Dollar-cost averaging continues, but within limited scope.** I only regularly invest in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. These two at least represent the long-term trends of crypto assets and tech stocks, making them relatively more worth the time and effort to hold.

**I’ve kept 30% in USDT.** When a "hawkish surprise" or black swan event occurs, having idle cash allows me to pick up real bargains during a sharp decline.

Honestly, no matter how thorough our analysis here is, the decision-makers in the meeting room have probably already planned their next move. As retail investors, the best we can do is—don’t rely on precise market timing, but instead check our risk tolerance and capital reserves in advance.

Tonight, I’ll order takeout and stay tuned for live updates. These days, even the Federal Reserve’s decision progress has turned into a suspenseful drama more absurd than domestic TV dramas.

BTC-4,16%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

UnluckyValidator

· 4h ago

Clearing the leverage step is something I've done too, and it feels really uncomfortable Damn, playing with interest rates during an election year is really something else A 30% USDT position is truly stable, I've learned a lot The Fed folks have had this plan in place for a long time, we're just chasing the hot topics behind them

View OriginalReply0

WagmiWarrior

· 12h ago

Laughing out loud, it's the same "see you next week" routine again. I bet five bucks but still have to wait two weeks. By the way, clearing leverage is really smart, much more clear-headed than those who say "I'm all in long" every day. Interest rates are just a political game. The Fed folks don't care about our positions at all. I'm also dollar-cost averaging into BTC and the Nasdaq, just treating it like a lottery anyway, since I have no other place to put my idle money. 30% USDT is indeed smart; when a black swan comes, that's the real opportunity to scoop up bargains. Honestly, no matter how deep retail investors analyze, it's all in vain. They've already set the table long ago. People who stay up for live streams are definitely going to have insomnia again. Better to just sleep; it's more practical.

View OriginalReply0

StealthDeployer

· 12h ago

Clear out leverage positions and that's it, then just wait for the black swan to crash the market. Truly exciting. --- 5% growth? Ha, just putting on a smoke screen here, it's been planned long ago. --- Oh, election year interest rate adjustments? Don't even think about it, they'll definitely loosen the policy. --- I'm also dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, just taking a laid-back approach since predictions are unreliable. --- Thirty points USDT handshake, buy the dip when a crash comes, it's that simple. --- The meeting room was booked early; we're just here to scoop up bargains, no other way. --- That old Wall Street trick, insiders playing insider games, retail investors just watch the show. --- The tech knowledge to rise to power? Dream on, it's still the old foxes from Wall Street sitting at the top. --- The logical chain can't be straightened out, might as well not think about it, wait for the news to come out. --- Watching the live stream tonight, rubbing hands, this script is more outrageous than "Wild Bloom."

View OriginalReply0

MetaverseLandlady

· 12h ago

Praising the move to clear leverage, we are all retail investors who can't afford to gamble --- I'm also pondering the 30% USDT position. When that black swan arrives, will we really be able to pick up bargains? --- Interest rate movements during election years? Ha, the decision-makers are better actors than I am --- Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and the NASDAQ is indeed stable, but you need the right mindset and patience --- Honestly, no matter how brilliant our analysis is, it can't change Wall Street's script. Just accept it --- I don't believe a word about 5% growth rate, just blowing smoke --- Waiting for news during the live stream feels more exciting than watching a drama, the thrill of losing money --- The feeling of clearing leverage is truly satisfying, although I might miss the rebound, but at least I feel at ease --- The key point is that it’s not about who takes the top spot. This is a political game disguised as economics --- Having cash on hand is better than anything else. When the market is crazy, cash is king

View OriginalReply0

OldLeekConfession

· 12h ago

Leveraged liquidation is indeed wise; at such times, gambling is better than preserving capital. --- Holding 30% USDT is the proper move; waiting for the black swan is the only option. --- Laughing to death, now even the Fed is a suspense drama, retail investors still have to stay up late. --- The core issue is when that interest rate cut will happen; everything else is just虚的. --- 5% growth? I think it's just hype. --- People who cleared their leverage avoided many losses this round, I admire that. --- Long-term dollar-cost averaging in Bitcoin is enough; other tricks are all the game of the big players. --- Waiting for next week's announcement, it feels like either a big rise or a big fall, nothing in between. --- The meeting room is all set; guessing for a long time is pointless, better to keep some cash. --- The real highlight is when they dare to move interest rates; this move during an election year is really ruthless.

View OriginalReply0