## The US labor market hits bottom: confidence in job searching reaches its most critical point

The employment situation in the United States is going through a particularly delicate moment. According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, workers' confidence in their chances of securing a new job has fallen to historically low levels, indicating growing concern in the US labor market.

### An unprecedented decline in American confidence

From November to December, the perceived likelihood of consumers securing a new job within three months contracted by 4.2 percentage points, reaching 43.1%. This figure represents the lowest confidence level since the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began monitoring these indicators in June 2013.

The data reveal that concerns are not only about unemployment but also about broader economic anxieties. The perceived risk of being unable to meet minimum debt payments in the next three months rose significantly to 15.3%, marking the highest level since April 2020.

### Disparities by demographic and socioeconomic groups

The Federal Reserve analysis identified particular patterns in how different segments of the population experience these concerns. Workers over 60 show the lowest confidence level, with only 33.1% believing they could find a job quickly if necessary. This figure contrasts significantly with the 46% recorded among those under 40.

People with an annual household income below $100,000 were identified as the most affected group by the decline in labor confidence. Likewise, those whose highest educational level is a high school diploma experienced the most pronounced effects of this change in expectations.

### Inflation expectations and a mixed economic outlook

On the inflation front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York documented that inflation expectations for the next year reached 3.4% in December, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous period. Uncertainty about price behavior also showed an upward trend.

However, not all indicators pointed in the same direction. The perceived probability that the national unemployment rate will increase over the next twelve months decreased to 41.8%, suggesting some moderation in expectations about the deterioration of the labor market. Regarding personal finances, although more Americans reported improvements in their current financial situation, overall financial concern remains high, with debt default risk being the most prominent worry.