How does Bitcoin Entry at the peak of demand create a swing picture in the market?

The latest on-chain data analysis suggests that the Bitcoin demand cycle is a more reliable indicator of future price movements than the traditional approach focusing solely on halving. With BTC trading at $90.76K (, a decrease of -2.37% over 24 hours with a volume of $1.04B), many indicators point to the market entering a cooling-off phase. The market research manager notes that the current picture of swings between extreme optimism and investor concern is a natural cycle that repeats regardless of the network’s technical event calendar.

Beyond the halving: What really moves the Bitcoin market

For many years, the community limited itself to waiting for the next halving, treating it as the main catalyst for price increases. However, this perspective is incomplete. The Bitcoin demand cycle is the real market engine — a recurring wave of new capital inflows that manifests through:

• Net flows of exchange addresses
• Changes in the number of active addresses on the network
• Patterns of accumulation and distribution by large holders (whale activity)
• Capital flows from institutional investors

Halving is a scheduled supply shock — a reduction of new coins by half. But when demand simultaneously declines, limited supply alone is insufficient to push prices higher. Analysts compare this to trying to support a falling structure with less and less wood — fundamentally ineffective.

Downward phase of the cycle: The full picture of swings

Current data indicate that Bitcoin is in the downward part of the demand swing. Characteristic signs of this phase:

Weakening demand on exchanges — The number of new deposits decreases, the first stream of euphoric investors begins to withdraw. Exchange inflows decline, while outflows from exchanges increase.

Profit-taking — Investors who entered during the previous cycle are starting to close positions. This dynamic creates downward pressure, regardless of fundamentals.

Market sentiment reaches a turning point — When demand peaks, sentiment is euphoric; as it enters the decline phase, it gradually shifts to disbelief and caution.

Historically, such periods precede either price consolidation or even short-term corrections. But remember: every bottom in Bitcoin’s history has ultimately been followed by a new high.

Practical strategies: How to invest during swings

Understanding the position of the demand cycle changes the game. Here are specific tips for different types of investors:

For short-term traders:

• Manage exposure more conservatively
• Watch resistance at $92K; support around $87K
• Avoid FOMO pride — you don’t have to participate in every candle

For long-term investors:

• This phase is an opportunity to dollar-cost average at the current price level ($90.76K)
• Focus on on-chain indicators, not daily fluctuations
• Every previous downward cycle ultimately laid the groundwork for the next exponential growth phase

For everyone:

• Monitor network fundamentals (active addresses, dormant coin movements)
• Don’t succumb to emotions — this is a natural part of the swing, not the beginning of a collapse

Does this mean the end of the Bitcoin bull run?

No. It means the end of the current demand wave. Similarly: when a swing reaches its peak, it must fall — but that doesn’t mean it will never go back up. The Bitcoin demand cycle remains resilient. Periods of weak demand are important — they eliminate speculative froth and prepare solid fundamentals for the next growth cycle.

Where to track demand cycle indicators

Analytical platforms offer real-time dashboards monitoring:

• Flows to and from exchanges
• Concentration of holdings (are large wallets accumulating or dispersing?)
• Outflows from exchanges (transfers to “cold” storage suggest long-term holding)

This data is available to any interested investor — it’s not exclusive knowledge of the market elite.

Summary: The swing shows the way

The Bitcoin demand cycle is a more reliable indicator than counting days to the next halving. The image of a swing between demand and supply, between euphoria and distrust, represents the true market dynamics. The current downward phase indicates an upcoming period of consolidation or correction, but it’s not a reason to panic — it’s a natural reset.

Experienced investors see this period as accumulation, an opportunity to lower their average purchase price, and prepare for the next growth cycle. Bitcoin’s history clearly shows: every bottom is temporary, every peak is twice as high as the previous one.

By respecting the demand rhythm and observing on-chain indicators, you can not only survive the current phase but also become a more strategic investor.