Winter Wheats Rally on Friday Morning Session

Winter wheat varieties are spearheading an early-session rebound as the grain complex regains footing following Thursday’s pullback. The broader wheats sector faced headwinds across all three major exchanges at yesterday’s close, with Chicago SRW contracts posting 2-3 cent declines and Kansas City HRW futures sliding 5 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat retreated 4-5 cents across nearby maturities.

Export Momentum Provides Slight Tailwind

Thursday’s export figures paint an interesting picture for wheat demand. Sales bookings reached 156,255 MT for the week ending 1/8, with unknown destinations claiming 72,000 MT and Philippines accounting for 61,500 MT. A South Korean buyer stepped in with a 92,300 MT tender on US wheats, suggesting underlying demand hasn’t fully evaporated despite price pressure. Forward sales for 2026/27 showed net reductions of just 26 MT—a relatively modest pullback.

EU Supply Shift Signals Market Adjustments

Expana’s latest assessment of the European wheat landscape reveals mixed signals. The forecaster raised EU wheat production by 0.3 MMT to 128.6 MMT, yet simultaneously trimmed export projections by 1.2 MMT to 28.8 MMT. This supply-demand recalibration underscores the delicate balance shaping global wheats valuations.

Futures Snapshot: Where Wheats Trade

CBOT March wheats closed at $5.10½ (down 2 cents Thursday, currently up 7 cents), with May contracts at $5.21½ (down 2¼ cents, now up 6½ cents). Kansas City March HRW wheats settled at $5.17¼ (down 5 cents, presently up 7¾ cents) and May at $5.28¾ (down 4¾ cents, up 7½ cents). Minneapolis spring wheats marked March at $5.63½ (down 4½ cents, currently up 2 cents) and May at $5.74 (down 4¼ cents, up 2½ cents).

Week Ahead: Monday Holiday Pause

Markets observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day with a Monday closure, resuming evening trade. Traders will eye continued export flow and any fresh weather developments affecting wheats supply dynamics.