Is the rebound after the bottom of the coin a false impression? 140 million tokens unlocking may cause another crash, and Binance listing is still a distant hope.

Pi (派幣) rose slightly on Tuesday after falling to a historic low of $0.15 the previous day. Weekly trading volume plummeted 99% from over $10 billion in March 2025 to less than $100 million, with Google search interest remaining at only 5. The project plans to unlock over 140 million tokens within the next 30 days, with the community stating, “The only hope is to get listed on Binance.”

$0.15 USD Historic Low Stress Test

(Source: Trading View)

U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on eight EU countries, triggering widespread market volatility and putting pressure on all risk assets. Driven by safe-haven demand, precious metal prices rose, but stock and crypto-related stock prices declined. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $95,000, and Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a downturn.

Pi also failed to escape the overall market decline. Data shows that the token’s price on CEX dropped to a historic low of $0.15, with a clear lower shadow on the price chart. Despite the closing price falling, the longer lower shadow indicates that attempts for further decline were unsuccessful. Sellers temporarily pushed the price sharply lower, but buying strength absorbed this wave, preventing further drops. This suggests that there is volatility and demand below the current range, rather than a sustained seller dominance.

This price movement aligns with changes in exchange balances. PiScan’s exchange data shows that as of January 20, centralized exchanges held about 420 million Pi tokens, worth approximately $75.6 million. Since early January, this number has decreased by nearly $7 million, indicating that investors are buying the dip and quickly withdrawing PI from platforms.

A reduction in exchange reserves is generally a positive sign, as it indicates tokens are moving from high-liquidity exchanges to private wallets, reducing immediate sell pressure. However, this interpretation should be considered alongside trading volume. If reserve decreases are accompanied by strong trading volume, it reflects genuine buying demand; but if trading volume is extremely low, reserve reduction may just be defensive behavior by a few holders, not a sign of market confidence.

At press time, the trading price of Pi was $0.189, up about 1% in the past 24 hours. This weak rebound is insufficient to mask its technical fragility. The bounce from $0.15 to $0.189 is only about 26%, a normal technical rebound range in the crypto market, and not enough to confirm a trend reversal.

Disastrous Signal of 99% Volume Collapse

The most serious issue Pi faces is the catastrophic collapse in trading volume. BeInCrypto pointed out that Pi Coin’s weekly trading volume has sharply declined, falling below $100 million, down 99% from over $10 billion in March 2025. This collapse far exceeds normal market adjustments and reflects that investor interest has almost completely disappeared.

Trading volume is a key indicator of price health. When price rises with increased volume, it indicates genuine buying demand; when price falls with declining volume, it may suggest selling pressure has been released. Currently, Pi’s situation is that the price hits a new low with extremely low trading volume, indicating a market in extreme apathy, with neither buying nor clear selling activity, leading to liquidity exhaustion.

Due to abnormally low trading activity, rebounds are difficult to sustain, as low transaction volume indicates limited investor participation. In a liquidity-starved market, even small sell orders can trigger significant price swings, increasing the unpredictability and risk of Pi’s price.

Google Trends data further confirms this lack of engagement. As of press time, the search interest for “Pi Network” is only 5 (out of 100). Search interest is highly correlated with market interest; when a crypto project’s search interest drops to single digits, it usually means mainstream attention has vanished. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum typically maintain search interest above 50, and even mid-cap altcoins often reach 20-30 during active periods.

This attention collapse is related to Pi Network’s unique history. It attracted millions of users with the concept of “mobile mining,” promising to earn tokens without power consumption. However, the tokens have long been untradeable, and the mainnet has yet to fully launch, causing many early users to lose patience. When Pi finally listed on exchanges, many holders chose to cash out immediately, and new investors lack confidence in this project with no clear business model.

Unlocking 140 Million Tokens as a Time Bomb

(Source: PiScan)

Looking ahead, supply-side pressure may further increase. Pi plans to unlock over 140 million tokens in the next 30 days. Token unlocks usually increase circulating supply, creating short-term resistance to price. When a large number of tokens flood the market, holders may choose to take profits, adding selling pressure. If demand does not grow accordingly, the increased supply will exert downward pressure on the price.

Compared to the current exchange-held 420 million Pi tokens, this is a substantial increase—about 33% potential additional circulating supply. More critically, most of these soon-to-be-unlocked tokens belong to early mining users or team members, whose costs are close to zero. Any price level is pure profit for them, greatly increasing their motivation to sell.

In a healthy trading environment, token unlocks can be absorbed gradually. But with Pi’s current weekly volume below $100 million, unlocking 140 million tokens—more than several times the current weekly volume—poses a significant potential sell-off risk. Even a small portion of unlocked tokens entering the market could cause notable price shocks.

This supply-demand imbalance is the biggest short-term risk for Pi’s price. Diminished trading volume indicates a lack of sufficient buy-side to absorb new supply, while token unlocks will continue to increase supply. Under this structural pressure, unless an external catalyst significantly boosts demand, downward price pressure will be hard to alleviate.

Binance Listing as the Last Lifeline

Faced with a harsh market environment, the Pi community is pinning hopes on a Binance listing. One user claimed: “The only hope to truly make PI take off is to get listed on Binance.” This expectation is not unfounded. As the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance has over 270 million users and immense liquidity. Any token listed on Binance usually results in a significant increase in trading volume and price.

However, this hope also faces practical challenges. Binance has strict listing criteria, including technical security, team background, business model, and community activity. Whether Pi’s current technical architecture and tokenomics meet Binance’s standards remains uncertain. Moreover, even if successfully listed, whether short-term liquidity boosts can translate into long-term value support depends on Pi Network’s ability to demonstrate clear commercial applications.

Historically, Binance listings can bring short-term gains, but long-term performance depends on project fundamentals. If Pi relies solely on a Binance listing for short-term stimulation without addressing the fundamental issues of low trading volume and lack of application scenarios, even a successful listing may only be a fleeting rebound rather than a trend reversal.