2026-01-21 03:10:28

#Strategy加仓BTC Bitcoin has pulled back from the high of $95,000 to $91,000, and the market sentiment in the options market is becoming increasingly clear — bearish sentiment is spreading. According to data from derivatives platforms like Deribit, the probability of falling below $80,000 by the end of June is as high as 30%, while the chance of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%. This difference in probabilities itself indicates a problem.

More notably, put options in the $75,000 to $80,000 range are piling up, seemingly hinting that the next key support level might be around $75,000. External geopolitical factors combined with negative skew in options imply that the downside risk has not yet fully manifested in the spot price.

From the previous high of $1.26 million, the correction has already exceeded 30%. At this point, long liquidation waves in the crypto market are frequent, reminiscent of the crash triggered by tariffs in April 2025. Currently, volatility is soaring, and risk management is no longer an option but a necessity. $BTC $ETH

BTC-2,28%

ETH-4,53%

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FarmToRiches

· 7h ago

Options are stacking up so aggressively, I really feel like I should hold onto 75,000... Otherwise, if it drops again, I'll have to see blood.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 7h ago

Is the 75,000 support really that strong? It doesn't seem that simple. --- A 30% chance of dropping below 80,000 sounds significant, but I still think it will rebound. The market atmosphere is too tense right now. --- Are the bulls about to get liquidated again? This rhythm feels all too familiar. --- I didn't quite understand the options stacking part. It feels like this analysis is a bit overinterpreted. --- 126 million is only 91,000 now. A significant pullback—how are you handling this, my friend? --- Risk control is necessary, but it seems many people actually don't care about it at all. --- Geopolitical factors are back again. When will this end? --- A 19% chance of hitting 120,000—are you serious? This market does look a bit uncertain. --- Adding positions? I think it's better to stay on the sidelines. The downside risk discussion is a bit alarming. --- The sell orders between 75 and 80—are the big players just trying to scare people again?

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OnlyOnMainnet

· 7h ago

Here we go again. The current bearish atmosphere is indeed a bit suffocating. 30% chance of dropping below 80,000 vs 19% chance of breaking through 120,000. Comparing these numbers can indeed be frightening... But on the other hand, options market predictions are not foolproof either. I'm a bit tempted by the 75,000 support level, but adding positions depends on your risk tolerance. Don't let panic emotions control you.

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GweiWatcher

· 7h ago

Wait, is the 30% chance of dropping to 80,000 really that high? Feels like the options market is疯狂放空 (crazy shorting) --- Are we about to see another liquidation wave? It really looks just like April’s, always the same套路 (routine) --- If the 75k support breaks, that’s really dangerous. Right now, it’s still hovering around 90,000 --- Not doing risk control? Then just wait to be eaten. I’m really nervous about this volatility --- Only 19% chance at 120,000? That gap is really heartbreaking... Looks like the big players are still bearish --- Adding to BTC easily, but who dares to gamble on this geopolitical risk? --- What does it mean that options are stacking at 75-80k? Are they going to smash through? --- Falling from 1,260,000 so much, the psychological defense line must have shattered for many --- Wow, spot market hasn’t even fully reacted, and the options are already pre-playing the shorting game

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SatoshiHeir

· 7h ago

It should be pointed out that your options probability argument has a fundamental flaw—on-chain data shows that institutions are accumulating put options in the 75k-80k range, which is essentially a hedging tool rather than a genuine short-selling signal. The white paper didn't teach us to use a single data source from the derivatives market for price prediction, my friend.

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TokenUnlocker

· 8h ago

30% chance of dropping below 80,000, this data is a bit scary... I'm still debating whether to reduce my position --- 75,000 support level has so many bearish orders stacked up, it feels like a big move down is coming --- Another wave of liquidations? I haven't recovered from the April one yet --- Risk control really can't be just an option anymore, this time it must be taken seriously --- Fallen from 1.26 million by over 30%, my mindset is about to explode --- With such a strong bearish sentiment, it might really not be that easy to break through 120,000 --- Sometimes Deribit's data is quite accurate, this wave might need some defense --- Geopolitical factors combined with options skew, does the downward space not fully reflect in the price? --- Spot hasn't fallen to the right level yet, derivatives are already bearish, wake up --- Instead of adding to the position, better first see if you can hold 91,000

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