#欧美关税风波冲击市场 January 21, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced the most brutal "bloodbath" of the year. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted 4.5% in a single day, crashing from the intraday high of $92,869.5 down to the support level of $87,800, and finally closed at $88,800, marking the largest single-day decline since October 10, 2022; Ethereum (ETH) was even more severely affected, dropping 7.0% and breaking through the critical psychological level of $3,000, with a low of $2,918. The total liquidation amount of contracts across the network in 24 hours exceeded $1.37 billion, with 180,000 investors liquidated, and long positions accounting for over 90% of liquidations.

This avalanche-like decline is not an isolated event. Amidst the turbulence in global bond markets, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and a sharp decline in the US stock market, the "safe haven myth" of crypto assets has been completely shattered. Market panic has spread to every trading link.

Data shows that ETH, affected by linkage effects and short-term ecosystem weakness, has fallen significantly more than BTC, while trading volumes of both have expanded simultaneously, indicating a concentrated release of market selling sentiment. Short-term volatility is unlikely to change.

Root causes of the avalanche:
Three major negative factors resonating to crush the market
1. Macro storm hits, risk assets collectively retreat
The core trigger for this correction is the "domino effect" in the global macro markets. On the geopolitical front, Trump not only threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries but also made extreme remarks about Greenland becoming US territory in 2026, prompting Canada to simulate a US military invasion for the first time. Coupled with the escalation of the Greenland crisis, the global geopolitical risk index soared to recent highs. Meanwhile, the global bond market experienced historic sell-offs, with Japanese yields entering the "4% era," and the 40-year Treasury yield soaring 27 basis points to 4.215%. US bonds were also affected, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 8 basis points to 4.293%, intensifying concerns over global fiscal stability. Risk-averse capital quickly fled high-beta assets, shifting into traditional safe havens like gold and silver—gold surged nearly 2% intraday to break through $4,762, reaching a new high, while silver rose 6.71%. Meanwhile, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" has completely failed, becoming a selling target. The sharp decline in US stocks worsened the situation, with the S&P 500 wiping out all gains this year overnight, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.39%. Tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla fell over 4%, and the downturn in the tech sector directly dragged down cryptocurrencies, which have long maintained high correlation. Under the pressure of collective risk asset decline, cryptocurrencies find it hard to stand apart. More alarmingly, expectations of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve are heating up, with the Fed chair nominee expected to be announced as early as next week, further amplifying fears of tightening liquidity and increasing selling pressure.
2. Leading coins face pressure, sources of selling pressure diverge
Bitcoin’s correction hints at "capitulation" by miners. Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s hash rate has declined for 60 consecutive days, with the hash ribbon indicator inverted. Inefficient miners are forced to sell coins to maintain operations, creating ongoing selling pressure. Although the mining difficulty will be reduced by about 4% on January 22, marking the seventh negative adjustment in nearly eight cycles, which may ease some miner stress, short-term selling pressure has not fully released. Ethereum’s correction results from a combination of "linkage pressure + ecosystem weakness." On one hand, the sharp decline of Bitcoin has caused strong negative linkage, and the loss of the $3,000 psychological level has triggered concentrated liquidation of long positions, with leveraged funds rushing to exit, accelerating the downward trend. On the other hand, Ethereum’s ecosystem is temporarily slowing down. Although the initial upgrade to increase Blob limit to 21 has improved Layer 2 throughput, recent on-chain transaction volume and Gas fees have continued to decline, and Layer 2 network activity has phased down. DeFi lock-up volumes have shrunk in tandem with price declines. More critically, market risk aversion is at an extreme, rendering the traditional "BTC rises → altcoins follow" rotation pattern completely ineffective. Funds are rapidly concentrating into top assets, with most mainstream altcoins falling far more than BTC and ETH, further confirming market abandonment of non-core assets. Ethereum also lacks new ecosystem narratives in the short term; after the Cancun upgrade, the subsequent effects are gradually fading. Although the Glamsterdam hard fork plan has long-term potential, it is unlikely to reverse the market weakness in the short term.
3. Leverage frenzy ends, panic liquidations trigger chain reactions
High leverage has been the "amplifier" of this crash. In 24 hours, 180,000 traders were liquidated, with concentrated liquidations of long positions creating a vicious cycle that accelerated price declines. Retail investor sentiment quickly shifted from optimism to panic, and leveraged traders were forced to reduce their positions passively, entering a deleveraging phase. Notably, institutional and retail behaviors are clearly diverging: institutional funds continue to hold top assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with US strategic Bitcoin reserves and firms like Bitmine even increasing their holdings, while retail investors are fleeing, further increasing market concentration.
Technical warning: Short-term bearish bias, key levels determine life or death
From a technical perspective, both major coins are in short-term weakness, with key support and resistance levels being the core focus for future movements.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Range-bound and bearish
On the daily chart, BTC has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with MACD forming a death cross, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. The 4-hour chart shows an accelerated decline pattern, with volume expanding, confirming strong selling pressure. In the short term, focus on the $87,800 support level (intraday low and previous high-volume zone). If broken, the next target is $85,000 (the lower boundary of the consolidation range since December 2025), with an extreme possibility of testing $82,000–$83,000. Resistance levels are at the psychological $90,000 mark and the previous consolidation center around $93,000. A rebound requires a volume breakout above these levels to reverse the weakness.
Ethereum technical outlook: Breakdown and further weakness
ETH is showing more obvious weakness than BTC, with the daily chart breaking below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, dominated by bears. The immediate support is at $2,918 (intraday low), with a key support at $2,800 (lower boundary of the medium-term range). If lost, the price could test the $2,700–$2,750 zone. Resistance levels are at the psychological $3,000 mark, with the $3,100 previous consolidation zone needing a volume breakout to ease downward pressure.