【BTC Structural Framework | Market Significance and Battle Path After Breakdown】

Breakdown Facts and Market Significance
Bitcoin has confirmed a break below the 89800-90000 USD zone on the 4-hour chart. This level is not an ordinary technical level but the lower boundary of a demand zone that has repeatedly formed rebounds previously. Its effective breach (accompanied by increased trading volume) indicates a shift in market consensus from "seeking support in this area" to "looking to sell in this area," which is a key signal of a broader trend change.

Shift in Bull-Bear Power Balance

1. Bearish Momentum: It has gained two advantages. First, spatial advantage: the price has moved away from the previous dense trading area, with no significant structural support below until 87800, enabling inertial downward movement. Second, psychological advantage: all longs entered above 89800 are currently at a loss, and any rebound will face "stop-loss selling pressure," making rebounds appear heavy.
2. Bullish Momentum: Temporarily retreating to two levels. First, technical rebound demand: due to short-term deviation from moving averages being too far, there is a magnetic pull back toward MA5 (~89800). Second, initial low support: 87800 is the first significant technical resistance faced by bears, where bulls may organize a defense.

Redefinition of Key Levels

· Core Resistance: 89800-90500. This zone has reversed from a "support platform" to a "supply zone," serving as the first test of whether the market has even short-term repair capability.
· Downside Observation Point: 87800. This is the observation coordinate for whether the bearish trend can continue. If the price quickly stabilizes and rebounds here, the market will enter a low-level oscillation; if it declines sharply or breaks down with increased volume, it indicates the downtrend will deepen.
· Potential Reversal Benchmark: 93500. Within foreseeable cycles, any discussion of trend reversal must be based on the price regaining stability above this level (corresponding to MA20 and higher moving averages). Currently, it is far from that.

Follow-up Path Projection

· Path A (Weak Recovery): The price rebounds to test resistance at 89800 but faces resistance and falls back, forming a new, lower-level oscillation range between 87800-89800. This is a downward continuation pattern.
· Path B (Continued Decline): The price fails to rebound (e.g., does not reach 89800) and then drops sharply with increased volume below 87800. This will confirm strong downward momentum, with the next target around 86000-85000.
· Path C (Complex Bottoming): The price receives strong buying support at or below 87800 and begins a prolonged sideways consolidation, with indicators like MACD forming significant bullish divergence. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition for trend reversal.

(The market is in the early stage after the breakdown; the outcome of key level battles will determine the medium-term rhythm. Subscribers can access the "Order Flow Resistance Distribution Map" and "Institutional Positioning Anomaly Monitoring" data.)#欧美关税风波冲击市场