【SOL Technical Structure Analysis | Key Support Battles and Market Segmentation Observation】

Current Structural Positioning
SOL is currently at a structural watershed on the 4-hour chart. Unlike BTC and ETH, which have established a trend of breakdown, its price still remains above the previous decisive low of $124.72 and is consolidating in a narrow range around $127. This movement makes it one of the few major assets in the current market showing clear "anti-dip divergence" signals.

Key Technical Logic Breakdown

1. Support Validity and Uniqueness:
· The support at $124.72 is not an ordinary technical level but the starting point that triggered a strong rebound during the previous decline, holding both psychological and technical significance. Its failure to break indicates that some funds recognize the value of this area and are engaging in defensive accumulation.
· The price is closely aligned with the short-term MA5 (~$127.35), and the moving average is flat, indicating that short-term selling pressure has significantly weakened, and the market has entered a low-volatility equilibrium state, which is a typical pre-directional choice feature.
2. Resistance Above and Momentum Structure:
· $130.3 (MA10) is the first challenge to break the current weak balance. An effective breakthrough of this level could initially reverse the "lower lows" extremely weak trend and potentially test the next resistance zone around 134-135.
· Momentum indicators are in a "silent" state: MACD double lines are highly close below the zero axis, and the histogram nearly disappears, indicating that the bulls and bears are temporarily balanced at this position, and the market is accumulating energy to choose the next direction.

Future Structural Evolution Projection
The core narrative for SOL is “whether it can maintain independence and relative strength.” Its subsequent path will clearly reflect the micro-changes in market risk appetite:

· Path One (Independent Bottoming): The price continues to oscillate within the $124.72-$130.3 range, digesting the pressure from above through time, and ultimately leading the rebound as market sentiment improves. This requires volume to gently increase during oscillation and no longer test the lower support.
· Path Two (Additional Breakdown): If the broader market (especially BTC) remains weak, selling pressure will eventually transmit to SOL, causing the $124.72 support to fail. This will confirm the breakdown of its "anti-dip" resilience, and the structure will shift to a follow-down trend, with the next target directly below $120.
· Key Observation Signals: Close attention should be paid to two points: first, the rebound speed and volume when testing support; second, whether SOL can demonstrate a clear strength advantage over BTC/ETH during the rebound (higher gains or smaller declines).

(SOL’s structural divergence is a key window for observing market capital rotation and risk preference shifts. Subscribers can access real-time charts of the “Altcoin Strength Index” and “Support Level Capital Residency Depth Analysis.”)#欧美关税风波冲击市场