#数字资产市场动态 BTC 1-hour key levels, what’s the current outlook? The technicals lean bearish, but don’t blindly chase the short!

I have a habit when trading—first look at on-chain data, then analyze the chart. The recent situation is clear: the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are already widening, the price is tightly hugging the lower band, MACD remains below zero, a typical bearish setup controlling the market. Short-term resistance levels are at 89,800 (middle band) and 91,680 (upper band), no debate there.

But here’s the catch: looking at candlestick charts alone can be deceiving. I’ve analyzed the on-chain data from the past 24 hours and found some interesting points:

Net inflow to exchanges isn’t significantly increasing, indicating that big players aren’t panicking, and there’s no signs of panic selling. Whale addresses are slightly accumulating, and some smart money is quietly building positions around 89,300. Derivatives funding rates have mostly returned to neutral, and the market isn’t showing extreme bearish sentiment.

On the news front, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting expectations are brewing. If their stance turns dovish, risk assets could rebound quickly.

My take is this: technically, the bears are in control, but on-chain data shows there’s buying support at the bottom. If the price can hold above 89,500 and break through 90,500, it could trigger a short covering rally. Conversely, if it breaks below the 88,000 Bollinger lower band support, it might continue downward to around 86,500.

How to trade? Don’t rush to short at this level. Wait for a rebound to the 90,000–90,500 zone, then gradually open small short positions with a stop-loss above 91,680. If volume breaks above 91,000, switch your bias to bullish, aiming for 93,000.

Markets are constantly changing, but data is always honest. I’ll keep an eye on large on-chain transfers and market sentiment at US stock market open. Any new signals will be updated here first.

Final words: contrarian rebounds require precise timing of key levels, and trend-following trades must have proper stop-losses. The market isn’t guessed by feelings; it’s patiently waited out. $BTC