January 21, 2026 $ETH Currently experiencing a technical rebound within a clear downtrend, not a trend reversal

Core analysis basis:

1. Price and Moving Average System:
Price action: Starting from the high near 3356.26 on January 18, the price has undergone continuous sharp declines. The latest closing price (2026-01-21) is 2982.73, significantly below the previous oscillation range.
EMA arrangement: The fast line (ema_fast) has sharply crossed below the slow line (ema_slow), and both are diverging downward. The current fast line (3096.69) is well below the slow line (3171.66), forming a standard bearish alignment, confirming a downtrend.

2. MACD Indicator:
DIF and DEA: Both are below zero, with DIF (-74.97) below DEA (-44.03), and the histogram (macd_histogram) is negative (-30.94), indicating very strong downward momentum.
Histogram: The MACD histogram remains negative and is expanding, showing that the bearish force continues to strengthen, with no signs of divergence or convergence.

3. Momentum and Oversold Indicators:
RSI: The latest value is 25.32, entering oversold territory (typically <30). However, in a strong downtrend, RSI can stay in oversold zones for extended periods. Its continued decline indicates persistent downward momentum.
StochRSI: StochRSI_K is 9.08, StochRSI_D is 3.03, both at very low levels (close to 0), confirming the market is in a severely oversold state. However, this is not a reversal signal but a reflection of an extremely weak trend.

4. Trading Volume Analysis:
During the decline (especially on January 20), there was a significant increase in volume (e.g., 462 million at 12:00 on January 20), a typical feature of volume-driven declines, indicating a large amount of sell orders flooding out, reinforcing the validity of the downtrend.

Key Level Analysis

Resistance Levels (Key Selling Pressure Zones):
1. Recent swing low / former support turned resistance: 3100 - 3120 area. This is where the price initially broke down, serving as the first strong resistance during a rebound.
2. EMA resistance: The fast line (~3096) and slow line (~3171) will act as dynamic resistance.
3. Major structural resistance: 3200 - 3220 area (the lower boundary of the dense trading zone on January 19). The price needs to recover this zone to preliminarily ease downward pressure.

Support Levels (Key Observation Points):
1. Recent low / psychological level: 2920 - 2930 area (the low formed at 20:00 on January 20). This is the nearest support; a break below could open larger downside space.
2. Further potential support: If 2920 fails, the next significant support may be around 2850 or lower, aligned with long-term trend lines.

Summary: After a period of high-level oscillation, the market broke downward on the evening of January 18, accompanied by increased volume and comprehensive technical indicators turning bearish. Although RSI and StochRSI show oversold conditions, the strength of the trend suggests that oversold states may persist. Any rebound that cannot effectively break above the 3100-3120 resistance zone should be viewed as a technical correction within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.

Trading Suggestions (for reference only):
- Trend traders: Focus on shorting at rallies, with key resistance near 3100-3120. Set stop-loss above resistance (e.g., above 3150).
- Counter-trend traders: If seeking a rebound, exercise extreme caution, waiting for clear signs of stabilization at key supports (e.g., around 2920), such as long lower shadows or bullish engulfing patterns, with strict stop-loss placement.
- All traders: Closely monitor the price behavior at the 2920 support level and reactions during rebounds at the 3100-3120 resistance zone. Also, watch whether the MACD histogram begins to converge or shows bullish divergence, which could be early signs of weakening downward momentum.
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