The restructuring of the currency market under geopolitical disturbances is worth关注. The escalation of situations in Venezuela and Iran directly boosts safe-haven demand, thereby giving a boost to the US dollar—this logical chain is very clear.

More interesting is the cross-effect: the GBP against the euro rises to a two-and-a-half-month high, driven by the euro's high sensitivity to trade disruptions. From another perspective, this reflects the market's re-pricing of supply chain risks. While the dollar's strength returns, it is also reshaping the relative positions of various currency pairs.

However, caution is needed regarding short-term and long-term divergence. The current dollar strength driven by risk aversion may be only temporary; once geopolitical tensions ease, this momentum will diminish. From a fundamental perspective, the UK's domestic political environment is a structural drag on growth, while expectations of fiscal stimulus in the Eurozone still exist, which determines the ceiling for GBP against the euro.

The key is to track capital flows—timing of safe-haven capital inflows and outflows often signals turning points more than the events themselves.