#Polymarket预测市场交易 Seeing the turmoil at Polymarket, what comes to mind is the ICO bubble of 2017. Back then, it was the same—emerging sectors just started to take off, and people began exploiting loopholes, ultimately tarnishing the entire ecosystem.

The transaction involving Maduro's arrest is extremely revealing. An investment of $32,500, with the account making precise bets right after opening—price soaring from 0.07 to 1, earning over 400,000 in less than 24 hours. Even more ironic, the transaction occurred hours before the official announcement. This isn't luck; it's information asymmetry being used as a cash machine.

On-chain tracking of the funds flow further confirms the story. Wallet addresses, SOL transfers, Fartcoin inflows... these traces are laid out plainly. What does that indicate? It shows that the rules and frameworks for this emerging prediction market sector are far behind reality. Kalshi claims to prohibit insider trading, but what about Polymarket? If you can't even identify the violators, then bans are just paper tigers.

History tells us that whenever new financial instruments emerge, regulatory lag is almost a law. Futures markets, options markets, digital assets—each started with wild growth before cleaning up the mess. The legislative proposal by Congressman Torres is actually inevitable, not an overreaction. As long as insider trading can make quick money in prediction markets, there will be continuous attempts.

The real issue is that the core value of prediction markets—the price discovery mechanism—once polluted, the entire market's credibility collapses. By then, no matter how advanced the technology, it can't be salvaged.