IOSG Founding Partner's Bold 2025 Crypto Forecast: Why It Could Be the "Worst Year," Yet Bitcoin May Reach $120,000-$150,000 Soon After

On December 21st, Jocy from IOSG—a venture capital firm’s founding partner—shared a provocative take on the crypto market’s trajectory. His thesis: 2025 will test investors like never before, but opportunity lies hidden within the chaos. According to a PANews report, this founding partner suggests that while the near term may prove grueling, Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook remains bullish.

Three Successive Waves of Distribution: A Market Unlike Any Before

What makes 2025 particularly harsh, according to the founding partner’s analysis, is how long-term holders (LTH) are offloading their positions across multiple phases—not in a single explosion like past cycles. From March 2024 through November 2025, approximately 1.4 million BTC (valued at $121.17 billion) shifted from long-term holder wallets. This unfolded in three distinct waves:

The first wave emerged with ETF approval and institutional entry in late 2023 through early 2024, sending Bitcoin from $25,000 to $73,000. The second wave accompanied Trump’s election win in late 2024, pushing BTC toward the $100,000 milestone. The third wave—what defines 2025—is characterized by extended consolidation above $100,000, with LTH gradually releasing their holdings rather than creating a sudden spike. This sustained, multi-phase approach contrasts sharply with the concentrated dumps of 2013, 2017, and 2021.

An Unusual Market Structure: 1.6 Million BTC on Pause

What makes the current environment historically anomalous is a massive pile of dormant Bitcoin. Approximately 1.6 million BTC (around $140 billion worth) hasn’t budged from wallets for over two years—a quantity that’s actually shrinking since early 2024. This stationary capital, combined with new institutional accumulation, creates a market structure the founding partner argues has never existed before. It’s simultaneously weighted by distribution pressure and supported by fresh capital deployment.

Where Investors Should Look: The Opportunity Within the Pain

Despite the “worst year” label, the founding partner identifies three distinct windows for investors:

Short-term (3-6 months): Expect Bitcoin to fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000. Institutions are likely using this range to continue building positions, making volatility a feature, not a bug.

Mid-term (first half of 2026): Policy tailwinds and institutional capital convergence could drive Bitcoin toward $120,000-$150,000. This is where the founding partner sees the real payoff, driven by both regulatory clarity and sustained fund inflows.

Long-term (second half of 2026): Volatility will likely increase, with outcomes heavily dependent on election results and whether pro-crypto policies persist.

Current Market Snapshot

As of January 21, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $89.43K, down 1.79% over 24 hours, with a market cap of $1,786.60 billion—positioning the market near the lower end of the founding partner’s predicted short-term range. This aligns with the thesis that institutions may be accumulating during the current weakness.