Trader Bitcoin spends billions of USD on insurance to hedge against the scenario of the price dropping to 75,000 USD

Bitcoin Option Expiration on June 26th Provides a Clear Snapshot of How the Market Is Shaping Mid-Term Risk Management. The current picture is not about directional betting but a deliberate hedging strategy.

As of January 20th, the total notional value of open contracts for this expiration is approximately $3.92 billion. The number of put options exceeds call options, with about 23,280 put contracts versus 19,870 call contracts. This difference, in itself, does not imply a bearish outlook, but indicates that hedging demand has clearly and measurably returned.

*The chart shows the open interest of Bitcoin options on Deribit by expiration date, January 20, 2026 (Source: CoinGlass)*Notably, the hedging structure is concentrated, not spread out. Open interest in put options is heavily focused in the $75,000–$85,000 range, accounting for roughly 20% of total puts for this expiration. The highest concentration is at the $85,000 strike, followed by $75,000 and $80,000.

This data suggests it is not deep tail risk insurance far from the market price. Instead, the hedges are placed close enough to the spot price to be meaningful for portfolio risk, yet not so close as to pay excessively high volatility premiums.

Conversely, call options remain present along the chain, especially at the $120,000 and $130,000 levels, along with some longer-dated positions. This indicates that upside exposure scenarios have not disappeared. The order book on Deribit reflects a market still leaning bullish, layered with downside protection near the spot, consistent with a structural strategy rather than pure bearish sentiment.

Market Reference Price

The most important reference point in the options chain is the at-the-money (ATM) zone, which anchors the probability and payoff calculations. In Deribit data, the strike with the most neutral delta is around $95,000, with the $95,000 call having a delta slightly above 0.52 and the corresponding put just below -0.48.

*The table shows open interest, delta, implied volatility (IV) (IV), and strike prices for options expiring on June 26, 2026, on Deribit (Source: Deribit)*This balance indicates that the market’s implied neutral reference price for June expiration is around $90,000. In other words, this is the price point the options market considers the most “normal” scenario at that time, serving as a pivot for how many bullish positions and downside hedges are held.

The implied probabilities are quoted relative to this benchmark, not the current spot price. From this anchor, the risk structure below becomes clearer. The region below $85,000 is where traders are willing to pay the most to hedge if Bitcoin drops from now until the end of June.

Volatility Looks Calm, but Insurance Is Still Expensive

At first glance, the implied volatility suggests no signs of stress. At the ATM strike of $95,000, the IV for June expiry is in the low to mid-40% range, consistent with Bitcoin’s long-term volatility compression trend.

Compared to previous tense market periods, this environment is relatively subdued. It indicates the market is not pricing in large, continuous swings but expects more controlled price movements.

However, this “calm” is not evenly distributed across the entire options surface. Downside protection is traded at a clear premium compared to upside exposure. When comparing options with similar deltas, puts have higher IV by a few percentage points. This negative skew shows traders are willing to pay more to hedge against downside risk than to bet on upside moves.

Premium data also supports this, as the market value of puts expiring in June far exceeds that of calls. This is also how Derive.xyz perceives the current structure. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, the market is in a state of compressed volatility but with high demand for downside hedging.

He estimates that the options market reflects about a 30% chance of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June 26, while the probability of exceeding $120,000 is only around 19% during the same period. These figures reflect pricing mechanisms rather than firm conviction, but they are consistent with the skewed options surface.

Mechanically, the Greek profile around this expiration explains why the $90,000 region is so important. Vega, theta, and gamma all peak near the ATM zone, making volatility, time decay, and hedge sensitivity most acute there. Prices may appear mechanically stable around this level, but react differently when sliding into thicker hedge zones below or accelerating past large call strikes.

Summary

The takeaway is more structural than predictive. The June 26th expiration shows the market anchored around $95,000, with strong hedging concentrated in the $75,000–$85,000 range, and upside exposure still present above $120,000. Looking solely at volatility levels can obscure this asymmetry, but skew and open interest reveal it clearly.

The options market is not panicked but is clearly allocating capital defensively against a specific downside risk range set for the first half of the year.

Thach Sanh