Jason Calacanis and All-In Podcast Hosts Map Out 2026: From Copper Bullishness to Crypto Paradigm Shift

In a recent episode of the All-In Podcast, four of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture capitalists and entrepreneurs shared their comprehensive outlook for 2026, providing insights into market trends, investment opportunities, and geopolitical shifts. The discussion, featuring Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, covered everything from California’s looming wealth tax crisis to the potential emergence of a new crypto paradigm controlled by central banks.

The All-In Podcast has become one of the world’s most influential platforms for venture capital discourse, and this episode reinforced why. The four hosts brought diverse perspectives shaped by their unique backgrounds: Calacanis as an early investor in Uber and Robinhood; Palihapitiya as founder of Social Capital and architect of the SPAC boom; Friedberg as a science-focused entrepreneur with deep industry connections; and Sacks as a former PayPal executive turned government advisor and close associate of Elon Musk.

California’s Wealth Tax: A Defining Economic Threat Reshaping Capital Flows

The conversation opened with an urgent concern dominating Silicon Valley: California’s proposed wealth tax. The hosts predicted this proposal would shape discourse throughout 2026 and beyond, regardless of whether it passes a vote this year.

According to the podcast discussion, the wealth tax—requiring approximately 850,000 signatures to reach the ballot—poses an existential threat to California’s business environment. If approved, the tax would impose a 5% levy on illiquid stocks held by wealthy entrepreneurs, creating a scenario where founders of successful companies could face effective tax rates of 25% to 50% due to super voting rights clauses in the proposal.

Chamath Palihapitiya noted that among wealthy entrepreneurs who have already relocated, the combined net worth exceeds $500 billion—a staggering loss for California’s tax base. David Sacks highlighted the paradox: even if the 2026 vote fails, entrepreneurs expect another attempt in 2028, making preventive relocation a rational financial decision. This anticipatory exodus has already begun, with implications that extend far beyond California’s borders.

The hosts’ consensus: California’s regulatory environment and wealth tax uncertainty would continue driving capital, talent, and businesses out of the state throughout 2026, regardless of the proposal’s immediate fate.

Where the Money Flows: The Business Winners and Losers of 2026

The Biggest Opportunities: Copper, Tech Giants, and Prediction Markets

The podcast hosts identified contrasting opportunities in 2026. Chamath Palihapitiya positioned copper as the year’s most compelling commodity investment, projecting a global supply shortage of approximately 70% by 2040. He argued that copper’s utility across data centers, semiconductors, weapons systems, and electrification infrastructure makes it irreplaceable—and critically undersupplied given mounting geopolitical tensions and supply chain realignment.

Friedberg selected two winners: Huawei, which he believes will exceed Western expectations in chip production through its partnership with SMIC, and Polymarket, the prediction market platform that has evolved from a niche curiosity into a serious news and insight source. Friedberg predicted that major exchanges including NYSE, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nasdaq would integrate prediction market functionality in 2026.

Jason Calacanis made the case for Amazon as the first “corporate singularity”—a company where robotic automation generates more profit than human employees. He pointed to Amazon’s Zoox autonomous vehicle division and same-day delivery capabilities in Austin as evidence of the company’s progress toward this inflection point.

David Sacks forecasted a major IPO boom in 2026, predicting that companies like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI would finally move toward public markets. He framed this as part of a broader “Trump boom” narrative, where regulatory uncertainty declines and M&A becomes less attractive than public offerings.

The Biggest Challenges: Enterprise Software and State Pension Liabilities

On the downside, the hosts identified systematic vulnerabilities. Chamath predicted that enterprise SaaS—a three to four trillion dollar annual market—would face severe headwinds as AI reduced both maintenance and migration costs. Though enterprises would still need software, incremental revenue growth would collapse, crushing publicly traded SaaS companies.

Friedberg focused on state governments facing cascading pension liabilities that would trigger solvency questions. David Sacks reiterated California as a major loser, while Jason Calacanis highlighted the threat to young American white-collar workers, whose entry-level positions are increasingly automated by AI-driven task completion.

Four Venture Capitalists’ Bold Bets on Copper, Oil, and Strategic Assets

The 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy

The hosts outlined a clear asset allocation playbook for 2026:

Best Performing Assets:

• Polymarket (driven by network effects and media replacement potential)
• Critical metals basket, especially copper (responding to geopolitical supply chain reshaping)
• The tech sector’s “expansionary supercycle” (as part of Sacks’ Trump prosperity narrative)
• Speculative trading platforms including Robinhood, Coinbase, and PrizePicks (fueled by consumer cash availability and lower interest rates)

Worst Performing Assets:

• California luxury real estate (threatened by wealth tax anxiety)
• Oil and hydrocarbons (Chamath predicted prices falling toward $45 per barrel as electrification accelerates)
• Traditional media and Netflix (losing content creators to independent platforms)
• The U.S. dollar (facing pressure from growing national debt, which is projected to increase another two trillion dollars in 2026)

Chamath’s prediction on oil diverged sharply from consensus bearishness on energy. He argued that electrification and energy storage trends are irreversible, making oil price recovery unlikely. Friedberg’s critique of Netflix emphasized content library challenges and harsh creator economics (cost plus 10%), predicting the company would struggle without transformative acquisitions.

Crypto’s Future and Geopolitical Shifts: The Year’s Boldest Predictions

The Central Bank Crypto Paradigm

Chamath articulated perhaps the podcast’s most provocative prediction: central banks will develop a new, controlled crypto asset paradigm to replace gold and Bitcoin. Rather than competing with decentralized assets, he argued, governments will design quantum-resistant, sovereignty-controlled digital assets for international settlement and reserve purposes. This represents a fundamental shift in how states think about value storage and monetary policy.

SpaceX-Tesla Consolidation

Chamath further predicted that SpaceX will not pursue an independent IPO. Instead, Elon Musk will merge SpaceX into Tesla, consolidating his two most valuable assets under a unified shareholding structure to maximize control. This contrasts with Jason Calacanis’ expectation of a traditional IPO boom.

Geopolitical Realignment

Friedberg offered a contrarian view on Iran, predicting that the fall of the Ayatollah regime—though destabilizing in the short term—would ultimately trigger greater Middle East conflict rather than peace. Regional powers would compete for influence vacated by Iran’s collapse, intensifying conflicts that many assume would ease.

David Sacks argued that AI will increase, not decrease, demand for knowledge workers, citing the Jevons paradox: as the cost of resource generation declines, aggregate demand increases. Code generation will proliferate software development; AI-powered radiological scans will increase radiologist workloads as verification demands surge.

Jason Calacanis predicted that the U.S.-China standoff will largely resolve under Trump’s second term, creating a win-win relationship rather than zero-sum competition.

Political Realignment: Who Wins, Who Loses in the New Landscape

Winners and Losers in 2026

The hosts identified clear political winners: the “Trump Boom” narrative (driven by falling inflation, rising GDP, and improving real wages), Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) as a force reshaping the Democratic Party, and any political actors fighting government waste and fiscal irresponsibility.

Economic indicators supported Sacks’ bullish thesis: inflation had fallen to 2.7%, core CPI to 2.6%, Q3 GDP growth reached 4.3%, and the trade deficit hit its lowest level since 2009. The hosts predicted GDP growth between 4.6% and 6% for 2026, with Chamath arguing that achieving 6% under democratic capitalism would rival China’s centrally planned performance.

The biggest political losers identified were Democratic centrists, who face pressure from socialist challengers in primary races; the tech industry, facing populist backlash from both left and right; and the outdated Monroe Doctrine, which Chamath argued Trump’s “transactional” foreign policy approach has already superseded.

Friedberg expanded on the tech industry’s vulnerability, predicting that the 2026 midterm elections would become a referendum on technology and AI. The alliance between tech and MAGA faces scrutiny from populist conservatives upset over past content moderation decisions, while the Democratic left opposes tech’s property rights orientation and perceived alignment with right-wing policies.

The 2026 Outlook: Consensus Amid Debate

The All-In Podcast discussion revealed broad consensus on several trends: commodities (especially copper) will outperform; certain mega-cap tech companies will continue their dominance; prediction markets will evolve from niche to mainstream; and geopolitical fragmentation will drive supply chain reshoring and economic resilience strategies.

However, significant disagreements emerged on employment (will AI create or destroy jobs?), on tech regulation (will populist pressure constrain innovation?), and on whether the U.S. economy can sustain 6% growth while addressing structural fiscal challenges.

Jason Calacanis and his co-hosts ultimately framed 2026 as a transformative year: one in which accumulated pressures on energy, labor, capital allocation, and geopolitics would force rapid adaptation across markets and policy. Whether through commodity supercycles, technological breakthroughs, or political realignment, they predicted 2026 would serve as a turning point in the post-pandemic economic cycle.