Bitcoin, which has finally achieved institutionalization, and Strategy's new outlook for the digital lending market

The true victory of Bitcoin lies not in short-term price fluctuations but in the establishment of a solid institutional foundation, a realization that is finally beginning to permeate the entire industry. Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of MicroStrategy, positioned 2025 as a historic turning point, pointing out that multiple significant developments—ranging from the revival of insurance to the integration of banking systems and official recognition by governments—have been achieved simultaneously.

According to Saylor, the number of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is expected to increase from 30–60 in 2024 to approximately 200 by the end of 2025. This rapid wave of institutionalization is functioning not as mere speculative activity but as a rational business decision directly linked to improving corporate fundamentals.

2025: A Historic Leap Forward for Bitcoin

Several institutional breakthroughs that have finally materialized have significantly transformed the landscape of the Bitcoin market. First, the revival of insurance coverage. Saylor recounted his experience of having his Bitcoin purchase in 2020 canceled by an insurance company. For the next four years, he had to continue insuring the company’s assets with personal funds, and without this situation, the company’s strategy would not have existed. Finally, in 2025, this insurance coverage issue was resolved.

The introduction of fair value accounting is also a crucial turning point. It now allows companies to recognize unrealized capital gains from Bitcoin holdings as profit. Previously, due to issues related to corporate alternative minimum tax, companies holding Bitcoin were effectively penalized; this situation has now improved.

Furthermore, at the government level, Bitcoin has been officially recognized as the world’s leading and largest digital commodity. This shift in recognition has prompted major US banks to begin or plan Bitcoin-collateralized lending. At the start of the year, only $5 million in loans could be obtained against $100 million worth of Bitcoin, but by the end of the year, several major banks had started offering loans collateralized by IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), and about a quarter of banks are now planning Bitcoin-collateralized loans.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), commercialization of Bitcoin derivatives has advanced, and a tax-free physical exchange mechanism between Bitcoin worth $1 million and IBIT has been introduced. These developments symbolize the maturation of market infrastructure.

Why You Should Not Be Distracted by Short-Term Price Predictions

Saylor strongly criticized the industry’s excessive focus on short-term price fluctuations. Despite Bitcoin reaching a new high 95 days ago, many market participants are still reacting emotionally to recent short-term declines, highlighting a contradiction.

In other words, the biggest mistake is setting the wrong time horizon. Bitcoin’s core philosophy is to set a low time preference—adopting a long-term perspective. Looking back over the past 10,000 years of history, successful individuals in any ideological movement have typically spent over a decade to achieve their goals.

Saylor emphasized that evaluating Bitcoin’s performance over just 10 weeks or 10 months is meaningless if the goal is commercialization. When assessed with a four-year moving average, Bitcoin’s very bullish trend becomes clear. The industry is moving in the right direction, the network is functioning properly, and the recent 90-day decline has been an opportunity for foresightful investors to accumulate more.

The True Role of Bitcoin as Digital Capital and Corporate Adoption

Some criticisms of Bitcoin stem from concerns that large-scale corporate purchases might saturate the market. However, Saylor countered that this view is fundamentally mistaken.

There are approximately 400 million companies worldwide. The concern that only about 200 might buy Bitcoin is entirely unreasonable. According to Saylor, even a loss-making company can improve its balance sheet by holding Bitcoin. For example, a company losing $10 million annually could hold $100 million worth of Bitcoin and realize $30 million in capital gains—that is nothing but a rational business decision.

Criticizing companies that hold Bitcoin is misguided; rather, the real problem lies with companies that continue to incur losses and do not hold Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a universal form of capital in the digital age, just as factories equipped with power infrastructure utilize electricity; companies are using Bitcoin as a tool to enhance productivity.

Saylor asked what he would recommend as an alternative to Bitcoin. While some companies might see it as an opportunity for profit, 99% of Bitcoin supporters welcome corporate adoption, with only about 1% opposing it.

In Other Words: Strategy’s Goal Is to Build a Digital Credit Market

Strategy, led by Saylor, positions Bitcoin as “digital capital” and aims to build a “digital credit” market from it. This is not just about banking but a broader, more fundamental market transformation.

Strategy has explicitly stated it will not enter banking. The reason is to avoid dispersing focus. The company’s goal is to create the world’s best digital credit products and realize a true vision of fundamental changes to the monetary and banking systems, which requires full dedication to its core business.

According to Saylor, the potential scale of the digital credit market is enormous. Just as there are issuers of senior and corporate credit, there are theoretically limitless opportunities—such as Bitcoin-collateralized derivatives, exchanges, and even insurance businesses utilizing Bitcoin as capital. Currently, no insurance companies on Earth utilize Bitcoin as collateral or capital, illustrating the untapped potential of this market.

In valuation of corporate assets, what matters most is not only what a company is doing now but also its potential future capabilities. Saylor emphasized that just because a company is not currently engaged in certain activities does not mean it cannot do so in the future.

The Dollar Reserve Strategy and the Potential of Digital Lending

The dollar reserves that Strategy holds are not intended for liquidity pools or interest payments on preferred shares but are aimed at enhancing corporate creditworthiness. In the digital credit market, many investors are uneasy about the high volatility of Bitcoin and stocks.

In other words, participants in the credit market seek creditworthiness rather than volatility. Holding dollar reserves can boost a company’s credit profile, increasing the attractiveness and competitiveness of digital credit products.

Saylor pointed out that if a company in Japan could achieve a 6% yield—something not obtainable in other credit markets—its valuation would become enormous. In essence, a company’s value is determined by its intrinsic capacity to create value. The key is how management achieves this.

Strategy’s product, “Strike-Deferred Digital Credit (STRC),” is designed as an ideal listed product. With a 10% dividend yield and a V-value of 1–2, capturing 10% of the US Treasury market could result in a market size of $10 trillion. Everyone desires such a product.

The Importance of a Long-Term Perspective During a Historic Turning Point

The period from 2025 to 2026 should be recognized as a transformative era where Bitcoin markets and corporate finance fundamentally change. Saylor believes 2026 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, but he also stated that short-term price forecasts of 90 or 180 days are of no real value.

While some criticize corporate holdings of Bitcoin, the core issue may stem more from discomfort with a new management paradigm than from concerns about market saturation. However, as Bitcoin’s commercialization and institutionalization continue, these concerns are likely to diminish gradually.

The combination of Bitcoin and digital credit holds the potential to significantly reshape the structure of future financial markets. The direction Saylor envisions symbolizes a fundamental financial system revolution beyond mere investment vehicles.