Bitcoin Investment Advice: Mr. Saylor Discusses Alternative Valuation Methods

Michael Saylor appeared on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast and shared intriguing advice about the true success of Bitcoin. He particularly emphasized the importance of correctly reframing the long-term value brought about by institutional and foundational adoption, rather than short-term price fluctuations. As we approach 2025 to 2026, let’s organize the new perspectives on Bitcoin valuation that Saylor presents.

2025 as a Turning Point for Institutionalization—Adoption by Institutions and Market Infrastructure Maturation

Saylor positions 2025 as a historic turning point for Bitcoin. The basis for this is the simultaneous progress across multiple domains.

First, the situation of corporate balance sheet holdings has changed significantly. While in 2024, about 30 to 60 companies held Bitcoin, it is predicted to increase to approximately 200 by the end of 2025. This figure indicates that Bitcoin is shifting from a mere speculative asset to a core component of corporate asset management.

On the institutional front, important changes have also occurred. Insurance coverage, which was previously a barrier for companies holding Bitcoin, was reinstated in 2025. The introduction of fair value accounting now allows profit recognition, and at the government level, Bitcoin has been officially recognized as a major digital commodity.

Furthermore, integration with the banking system is rapidly advancing. Major US banks are starting or planning to offer Bitcoin-backed loans, and the Treasury Department has issued positive guidelines regarding the inclusion of crypto assets on bank balance sheets. Both CFTC and SEC chairpersons have expressed support for Bitcoin, and infrastructure improvements such as the commercialization of derivatives markets on CME, the introduction of tax-advantaged exchange mechanisms between ETFs (IBIT) and Bitcoin, have followed one after another.

Saylor’s advice is rooted here. Looking at this multifaceted progress, it can be said that by 2025, all the elements that the Bitcoin market has desired will have been realized.

Short-term Price Predictions Are Unnecessary—Reframing as Long-term Thinking Is Essential

The podcast host asked about the current price being lower than last year. Saylor provided a very clear piece of advice in response: “Focusing on short-term events is a mistake.”

Despite Bitcoin reaching a new high 95 days ago, people are reacting emotionally to recent price movements. Saylor argues that we need to break free from such emotional reactions and significantly change our time horizon.

Historically, people dedicated to ideological movements have been evaluated over a ten-year timeframe. Many do not succeed even after ten years of effort and spend another ten or twenty years trying. If the goal is institutionalization of Bitcoin, evaluating over weeks or months is inappropriate, and predicting prices after 90 or 180 days is fundamentally meaningless.

Looking at the 4-year moving average, Bitcoin shows a quite bullish trend. 2026 is expected to be an important year for Bitcoin, but we should not try to predict short-term price fluctuations. The entire industry and network are moving in the right direction, and the past 90 days have been an excellent opportunity for foresightful investors to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin as Digital Capital—Reframing Corporate Strategy Rationality

Saylor’s next advice concerns how to reframe the essence of corporate Bitcoin purchases. Many are concerned about the increase in treasury companies, but Saylor points out a fundamental misconception in this view.

His basic stance is: “Every household and every company can buy Bitcoin.” For distressed companies, holding Bitcoin can improve their balance sheets, and for profitable companies, it can lead to increased revenue.

Specifically, even a company with a $10 million annual loss could hold $100 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and generate $30 million in capital gains. Would you deny that this creates value for the company? The focus of criticism should be on ongoing losses, and questions should be directed at companies that hold Bitcoin while incurring losses.

There are approximately 400 million companies worldwide. Saylor asks: why do we think the market cannot respond with about 200 companies holding Bitcoin? This suggests that the logic of market saturation is not valid.

Saylor also strongly opposes defining Bitcoin-holding companies as “purely financial companies.” Just as factories with power infrastructure are tools for productivity rather than mere speculation, Bitcoin holdings are similar. If electricity is a “universal capital that powers all machinery,” then Bitcoin should be reframed as the same kind of capital in the digital age.

The True Vision of Strategy: A New Frontier in the Digital Credit Market

The direction that Saylor and Strategy aim for is not banking but pioneering the digital credit market. This is an extremely important piece of advice.

Strategy’s business model involves leveraging US dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness and offering digital credit products. The ideal product is a listed asset with a 10% dividend yield and a value multiple of 1–2. If they can capture 10% of the US Treasury market, the potential market size could reach $10 trillion.

Why are they not interested in banking? The reason is to maintain focus. They aim to create the world’s best digital credit products and avoid spreading into other areas. Competing with customers is considered the most foolish act.

Credit buyers tend to think that Bitcoin or stock volatility is too high. Therefore, Strategy enhances the attractiveness of its products by holding dollar reserves to boost corporate creditworthiness. Stock investors may want to expand Bitcoin holdings, but credit investors seek the most creditworthy assets.

Saylor’s advice is this: a company’s value is not determined solely by how it currently utilizes capital. It is also influenced by what it can do in the future. If there are no insurance companies, exchanges, or various financial products backed by Bitcoin on Earth, the growth potential of this industry is theoretically almost infinite.

This reframing—from short-term to long-term, from speculation to institutional, from parts to whole—is essential advice for properly understanding Bitcoin and the digital financial market.