#Polymarket预测市场 Polymarket is in hot water again. A trader bet $32,500 on Maduro's ousting and made over $400,000 in less than 24 hours, with a return of over 1200%. The key point is that the price increase happened a few hours before the official announcement. This operation clearly indicates insider information was involved.

U.S. lawmakers are now proposing legislation to ban government officials from engaging in insider trading on prediction markets, which is a pretty quick response. But honestly, this kind of regulation has been overdue. Prediction markets are originally good tools, but they’ve been turned into harvesters for those with informational advantages.

Kalshi quickly issued a statement claiming their rules are strict and insider trading is prohibited. That sounds good, but the real issue is how to identify and catch these people. They create accounts anonymously, make a few trades, and then disappear—such tricks are hard to prevent.

For prediction markets to develop long-term, regulation and oversight must keep pace. Otherwise, the advantage of informed players is too great, and ordinary spectators are just getting exploited. This incident serves as a wake-up call for the entire industry.