#数字资产市场动态 【Dark Currents Before the Reversal】BTC 1-hour timeframe, who has the upper hand in the bulls and bears?

Recently, I’ve been studying BTC’s hourly movements, combining some on-chain data and market sentiment, and I want to share what I’ve observed.

**Technical Perspective**

The BOLL bands are diverging downward, with the price bouncing between the lower band and the middle band (current price 89,230; middle band 90,416). This structure clearly indicates a bearish dominance. But interestingly, near the lower band (88,338), I noticed some signs of accumulation, which is worth paying attention to.

A subtle signal appears on the MACD — the DIF is still below 646.5 (currently 530.9), which looks weak, but the green histogram has shrunk to -231.2. What does this mean? The bearish momentum is starting to weaken on the hourly level. A potential bullish divergence might be brewing, so we need to stay alert.

Key levels I’ve identified: the resistance at the BOLL middle band of 90,400; if broken, the next target is 92,000. The critical support is at 88,300; if volume increases and it breaks down, then we look toward the 87,000 area.

**On-Chain Data Tells a Story**

Whales have increased their holdings by about 12,000 BTC in the last 24 hours, according to on-chain tracking. Meanwhile, net outflows from exchanges have surged to 38,000 BTC. What do these two signals combined suggest? Smart money is accumulating at low levels.

Additionally, the options market shows the PUT/CALL ratio dropping to 0.45, indicating market panic has been exaggerated. Usually, during such times, a short squeeze can be triggered, so it’s worth considering.

**Market Sentiment and News Game**

The Federal Reserve’s January minutes hinted at a "slowing of balance sheet reduction," which is positive for risk assets. But regulatory FUD around stablecoins is still fermenting, so the bullish and bearish news offset each other, leaving technicals as the main driver.

Tonight at 22:00, a US securities custody report will be released. If it shows institutional accumulation, it could be the trigger for a trend reversal.

**My Outlook**

Short-term (1 to 3 days): Gradually build long positions within the 88,300 to 89,500 range, with a stop-loss at 87,700. If it falls below that, we must acknowledge a trend reversal to bearish. The first target is 90,500; if broken, then look toward 92,500.

Mid-term perspective: If the weekly close can hold above 92,000, then the four-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern is confirmed. At that point, targeting above 95,000 becomes feasible.

The market is always changing, and the rhythm of the trend shifts as well. The key is to understand the underlying logic. $BTC Currently, we are at a point of indecision between bulls and bears. Whoever can push the opponent out of this position will gain the initiative.