Why is there no sustained selling pressure on Bitcoin despite the tariff hammer coming down?

Bitcoin has been declining continuously under the impact of Trump’s tariff policy, but on-chain data reveals an interesting contradiction: although exchange inflows temporarily increased, this inflow did not persist, suggesting a lack of sustained structural selling pressure in the market. CryptoQuant analyst XWIN’s latest analysis uncovers the market psychology behind this— a tug-of-war between short-term economic risk avoidance and long-term allocation interests.

How Tariff Policies Have Become a Recent Downward Pressure on Bitcoin

According to the latest news, the Trump administration has once again advanced tariff policies, which have become a clear bearish factor for Bitcoin since 2025. This policy impact influences the market through a clear transmission chain:

• Tariff policies directly lower corporate profit expectations
• Increase inflation expectations, altering monetary policy outlooks
• Weaken overall risk appetite
• Risk assets (including Bitcoin) become more susceptible to corrections

Data confirms this pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $89,067, down 2.42% in the past 24 hours, with a total decline of 6.21% over the past 7 days. This is not an isolated event; the overall market risk sentiment is deteriorating—early Monday data shows that the total crypto market liquidation amount has reached $864 million.

The True Meaning of CEX Net Inflow Data

During periods of increased economic risk, capital flows into CEXs (centralized exchanges) often reflect investors’ actual actions. XWIN’s observation highlights a key phenomenon:

This reflects investors’ real mindset: facing increased economic uncertainty, they tend to reduce risk exposure in the short term. In this process, Bitcoin is often viewed as a liquid asset that can be temporarily sold to reduce portfolio risk, rather than a long-term store of value.

Short-term Adjustments vs. Long-term Allocation Divergence

This analysis reveals two forces within the market:

Short-term pressure: Economic risks lead investors to act quickly; the policy shocks from tariff policies are indeed pushing prices down. Related information shows that several whales have recently sold large positions; Bitcoin OGs, after holding for 12 years, sold some of their holdings, with single-day liquidations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars.

Long-term allocation: The lack of persistent CEX inflows indicates that the market has not formed a structural selling pressure. This suggests that institutions and long-term holders have not exited en masse. In fact, recent institutional allocation data shows that corporate Bitcoin treasuries are still accumulating; Metaplanet has joined the 10,000+ BTC club, and Strategy Inc. plans to buy over $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin in a new round.

Summary

This analysis offers an important perspective: Bitcoin’s recent decline has indeed been suppressed by tariff policies and economic risks, but the market has not fallen into sustained structural selling. The “short-term inflow but no continuation” characteristic of CEX data indicates that this is more a reaction to short-term risk avoidance rather than a change in long-term allocation intent. In other words, the market is experiencing a short-term correction, but the long-term interest in fundamental allocation remains. Moving forward, attention should be paid to whether the development of tariff policies and institutional allocation willingness will further adjust.