January options expiration imminent, $2.7 billion in notional value shakes up the market

DeFiGrayling · 2026-01-21T11:22:30+00:00

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets are set for significant expirations, with a total nominal value of $2.3 billion for 20,000 BTC options and $430 million for 120,000 ETH options. A high put-call ratio indicates bearish sentiment, suggesting limited upward potential and the likelihood of sideways trading amidst substantial option expirations.

DeFiGrayling

2026-01-21 11:22:30

Abstract generation in progress

Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets are approaching significant expiration dates. Recent analysis of period options data indicates that a substantial nominal value will expire simultaneously, which is expected to have a notable impact on the spot market as well. In particular, the dominant force driving trading appears to be the selling pressure of put options, suggesting that the market may continue to trend sideways.

Nominal Value and Resistance Levels of BTC Options

A total of 20,000 BTC options are set to expire, with the total nominal value reaching approximately $2.3 billion. The put-call ratio stands at 1.39, indicating that put options are prevailing over call options, and the maximum resistance level is around $92,000. Currently, BTC is trading in the $89,000 range, but considering it recently surged near $98,000, there is significant call option selling pressure at the $100,000 level. This can be interpreted as a short-term signal of weakening upward momentum.

ETH 120,000 Options and Implications of the Put-Call Ratio

Ethereum options are also substantial. With 120,000 ETH options expiring simultaneously, the total nominal value is about $430 million. The maximum resistance level is at $3,200, but ETH is currently trading around $2,970, indicating limited room before reaching resistance. This provides a technical background that makes upward breakout expectations challenging.

Market Sentiment Revealed by Option Data

The observed decline in the overall option premium in the options market vividly reflects changes in market participants’ sentiment. The dominance of option selling as a trading driver suggests that investors are cautious of downside risks while simultaneously strengthening their defensive positions at current price levels. Overall, the market is expected to see approximately $2.7 billion worth of options expiring in a sideways trend, which could become a key variable influencing future volatility.

BTC-0.29%

ETH-1.08%

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