Ethereum is currently in a very delicate position. I’ve been watching the charts for a few hours and found some interesting things I want to share with everyone.

**Technical Analysis**

The Bollinger Bands are currently narrowing, with the price tightly hugging the 20-period midline (around 2978), and the lower band at 2933 forming a short-term support. What does this narrowing pattern usually indicate? Accumulation. The market is gathering energy, and a clear breakout in either direction is likely within 1 to 2 hours.

MACD performance is quite interesting. The DIF and DEA are still below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum still exists. But the key point here is— the MACD histogram has already turned positive (value 12.61), which means the selling momentum is waning. I see the formation of a typical bullish divergence. If the price can stay above 2970, the rebound speed will significantly increase.

The specific positional relationship is as follows: if the intraday high of 2968 is broken with volume, the next target is the resistance zone at 2980-3000. Conversely, if it cannot hold above 2950, then it needs to fall back to the support at 2933.

**On-Chain Data Perspective**

This is the part that makes me optimistic. The ETH reserves on exchanges have decreased by 2.1% in the past 24 hours (data from on-chain analysis platforms), indicating that selling pressure is clearly weakening. Some are withdrawing coins, and the message is very clear.

The movements of large holders tell us even more— addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have increased their holdings by 18% in the past three days. These smart funds are quietly accumulating. When big players start buying, retail investors should pay close attention.

Gas fees have risen to 35 gwei, and on-chain activity is clearly picking up. The weekly interaction volume in the Layer 2 ecosystem has grown by 30%, and the fundamental support is getting stronger. This is not just empty talk; it’s real on-chain heat.

**Catalysts from News and Events**

Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade has been confirmed to activate on the mainnet in March, which is a major event. The expected reduction in transaction fees could reach 70%, and ecosystem tokens like OP and ARB are already starting to move ahead of the curve.

Another important point: BlackRock has submitted a revision document, and ETH spot ETF is in a critical regulatory phase. Any hints of progress could quickly reverse market sentiment. Such positive news often acts as a trigger.

**My Practical Trading Approach**

Probabilistically, I lean towards a bullish stance with about 60% confidence. If the price breaks above 2970, I will go long, targeting the Bollinger upper band at 3020, with a stop-loss at 2945. The risk-reward ratio here is acceptable.

The remaining 40% risk is for defense. If volume increases and it breaks below 2933, I would consider a short position down to around 2900. But be aware—there are institutional orders around 2880 below, so the rebound risk must also be guarded against.

**Final Reminder**

We are on the eve of a trend reversal. The more signals I see, the more I need to control risk. Never bet heavily on the direction—this is a hard-earned lesson from my years of experience. The most reliable strategy is simple: wait for a confirmed breakout before following, let the candles tell us the real direction, and pay attention to on-chain big players’ movements and news like ETFs, which are the real triggers.

The market is constantly evolving. Data and logic are the compass that guides us through bull and bear markets.