2026-01-21 11:24:39

Looking at the recent performance of precious metals, you can see how difficult the crypto market has been. Spot gold has broken through $4,800 per ounce for the first time this year, soaring over 10% this month, with an increase of more than $480. Someone joked that if $XAU keeps rising like this, the crypto world will be drained dry. Honestly, rather than considering Bitcoin $BTC as digital gold, it’s more accurate to say it’s not even a fraction of gold.

However, from on-chain data, things might not be so bleak. The profit supply percentage indicator is currently stuck at 75.13%, meaning three-quarters of circulating BTC are still in profit. Sounds good, but the key point is that this number has sharply dropped from near 100%, indicating extreme optimism. Historical patterns tell us that once this indicator drops from 80% into the 70-75% range, it often signals that a phase bottom has formed, and a rebound is not far off.

Multiple data dimensions point to the same conclusion: BTC is in a clear phase bottom zone. The profit supply percentage falling to this critical support level of 75.13%, combined with continuous on-chain capitulation signals, liquidation of derivatives leverage, and a clear oversold technical state, all these factors together form a strong consensus for a rebound.

In terms of target prices, BTC is expected to advance towards $92,500–$93,000 in the short term, mainly depending on whether it can reclaim the 20-day moving average. From a longer-term perspective, the mid-term trend still points to challenging the previous high of $100,000–$120,000. The key is whether this rebound can break through this psychological barrier.

BTC-0.29%

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BlockDetective

· 3h ago

The gold surge is real, but we need to look at on-chain data. 75.13% are still making profits. The bottom signal is so obvious, a rebound is just around the corner. $92,500-$93,000 is not far, the key is whether we can hold on.

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OfflineValidator

· 4h ago

Gold vampire is indeed fierce, but the 75 level is a historical signal, and the rebound probability is quite high. --- Talking about digital gold again? Laugh out loud, gold is almost 5k, but the coins are still dawdling here. --- That point at 75.13% is tightly held, either a rebound or a continued dip, pick one. --- The derivatives leverage has been cleaned up, and it feels more comfortable now, like the bears are out of ammunition. --- If 92,500-93,000 can really be broken, then the real fun begins; otherwise, it's all empty talk. --- Wait, a sharp rise in gold is actually a positive signal? That logic is a bit extreme. --- Three-quarters still making money sounds impressive, but actually, it's just about clearing out that last quarter. --- What no one mentions is that if this rebound only lasts halfway and then drops again, it would be awkward. --- I'm skeptical about the 20-day moving average as a barrier; no matter how oversold the technicals are, it won't change the trend. --- The mid-term challenge is 100k-120k; let's fill the recent gaps first before making big claims.

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CafeMinor

· 4h ago

75% at this level is indeed a turning point. Gold is draining our hard-earned money, but on-chain data offers some hope. However, whether it can rebound to 93,000 still depends on the market sentiment.

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