The truth behind Wintermute's misinterpretation: The bull market isn't over, institutions have just taken over

Regarding the recent debate and misunderstandings sparked by the view that “Wintermute’s crypto traditional bull market cycle has ended,” Garrett Jin, an agent of “### insider giant whale,” clarified on the X platform that this interpretation deviates from the original intent. Wintermute’s true stance is: institutions have not ended the bull market, but have changed its nature. As institutional asset sizes increase, the market is undergoing a profound shift from a speculation-driven to a allocation-driven phase. This is not the end of the cycle but an upgrade of the market mechanism.

Misinterpreted Viewpoint and True Meaning

Clarification of the viewpoint: The cycle is not dead, just transformed

According to Garrett Jin’s clarification, interpreting Wintermute as believing “the traditional bull market cycle has ended” is overly absolute. In fact, Wintermute aims to express:

• The bull market itself has not ended, but its driving forces have shifted
• Institutional participation has changed the mechanism of the bull market, rather than ending it
• The market is evolving from a speculative tool to a configurable asset, representing a structural upgrade rather than a decline

Core logic of the market structure shift

Garrett Jin pointed out that with the growth of institutional asset management scale, two key changes are occurring:

• Asset prices tend to rise: Continuous inflow of institutional funds provides stable buying support
• Volatility decreases: Large sums of money entering and exiting become more cautious, narrowing market fluctuations

How current market data confirms this shift

Specific manifestations of institutional participation

Recent data shows that institutional involvement in the crypto market is indeed deepening:

• ETF funds continue to flow in: Last Tuesday, a single-day net inflow of $760 million, totaling $1.4 billion for the week, indicating stable institutional allocation demand
• Whale bottom-fishing behavior: Trend Research borrowed $70 million USDT from Aave to buy 24,555 ETH (worth $75.5 million); OTC whales purchased 20,000 ETH (worth $58.8 million) via FalconX and Wintermute
• Market makers active: Market makers like Wintermute continue to participate amid market volatility, providing liquidity support

BTC/ETH performance reflects

As of now, BTC is priced at $89,262.84, down 2.21% in the past 24 hours, but Wintermute’s analysis considers this a “healthy correction.” Key points include:

• Market cap remains stable: BTC market cap holds at $1.78 trillion, with a high market share of 59.26%
• Active trading: 24-hour trading volume is $5.11 billion, indicating ample market liquidity
• Solid support: Despite $850 million in long liquidations, the market did not spiral downward, suggesting a stable buying foundation

From cycle data, institutional influence

Wintermute’s 2025 data offers an interesting perspective:

• Altcoin cycles shorten: In 2025, the average altcoin rally lasts about 20 days, compared to 60 days in 2024
• Implication: With institutional funds entering, market efficiency improves, speculation cycles accelerate, but individual project hype is hard to sustain long-term

Three potential triggers for recovery

Wintermute predicts that the expansion of market participation in 2026 depends on three conditions, further confirming the importance of institutional allocation mechanisms:

• Broader ETF coverage: Launch of ETFs for mainstream coins like Solana, XRP, etc., will attract more institutional funds
• Strong rise of BTC/ETH: The wealth effect of major coins could drive the overall market
• Retail investor return: Whether retail participation recovers and can work together with institutions

Deep implications of the market shift

Why is this shift important

The transition from speculation to allocation fundamentally reflects an upgrade in the attributes of cryptocurrency assets. When institutions are willing to include crypto assets in long-term portfolios rather than short-term trading, it signifies:

• Market maturity: Cryptocurrencies are integrating into the global asset allocation system
• Improved volatility management: Institutional participation provides more stable market liquidity
• Optimized value discovery: The market shifts from emotion-driven to fundamentals-driven

Personal opinion

From this perspective, Wintermute’s view is actually optimistic. They are not saying the bull market is over, but that it is upgrading from a “retail casino” to an “institutional allocation market.” This transition means: the crypto market is gaining stronger support, but it also reduces opportunities based solely on sentiment and hype.

Summary

The misunderstood view of Wintermute reflects an important structural transformation in the crypto market. The bull market has not ended but has changed form — evolving from a high-volatility, retail-driven speculative market to a low-volatility, institution-focused allocation market. The ongoing ETF fund inflows, institutional bottom-fishing, and decreasing market volatility all confirm this shift.

Understanding this is crucial: under the new market mechanism, strategies that chase short-term surges may become less effective, while long-term allocation could provide more stable returns. For investors, this presents both challenges (reduced high-volatility opportunities) and opportunities (improved market liquidity and stability). The key is how to adapt to this market structural change.