Towards a mature Year of the Ox! Ark Investment sets a Bitcoin target of $1.5 million by 2030

With the approval and listing of the US Bitcoin spot ETF and the rise of institutional asset reserve companies, Bitcoin has officially entered a new development phase. Ark Invest’s perspective believes that, under the catalyst of a bull market, the focus of the Bitcoin market has quietly shifted—no longer about “whether to invest,” but rather “how much to invest” and “through which channels.” The company’s long-term valuation model predicts that by 2030, Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million in the most optimistic scenario.

David Puell, a digital asset research and trading analyst at Ark Invest, pointed out that during past bull and bear cycles, many infrastructure projects were still in development, but today’s market discussions have undergone a fundamental change. This shift is driven by large-scale institutional and compliant capital entering the market, marking a transition from retail-driven to institution-driven Bitcoin markets.

Institutional Capital Surges! ETFs and Reserve Companies Absorb Over 12% of Supply

Since being approved for listing in early 2024, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the most critical source of capital in the market. According to statistics, in less than two years, the total net inflow has exceeded $50 billion, a staggering figure that fully reflects institutional demand for Bitcoin assets.

Among them, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have absorbed the majority of the capital flow. These two leading ETFs not only significantly increased market liquidity but also further compressed the circulating supply. Some estimates suggest that these ETFs hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins, creating a strong accumulation effect.

Puell further revealed that ETFs and corporate reserve strategies have collectively absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, a figure far beyond market expectations. This large-scale accumulation of chips is expected to be the main driver of price trends from 2025 to 2026, with influence likely to extend even longer.

Volatility at Historic Lows, Mature Investors Changing Market Dynamics

A noteworthy phenomenon in the evolution of the bull market is the structural change in Bitcoin’s volatility. Puell observed that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to historic lows, with risk-adjusted returns significantly improving, reflecting an optimization of the market’s risk-reward balance.

Historical comparisons show clear changes. In past bull markets, corrections of 30% to 50% were common, but since the bottom in 2022, the largest drawdown has been only about 36%. Behind this convergence in volatility is a fundamental change in market participant structure. Mature institutional investors do not blindly chase high prices during rapid rallies; instead, they strategically allocate during pullbacks. This rational investment behavior effectively reduces irrational market fluctuations and accelerates recovery cycles.

Regulatory Clarity and Bull Market Momentum, Structural Benefits Emerge

The current policy environment provides new support for Bitcoin’s development. The regulatory clarity brought by the Trump administration, along with strong support from local governments like Texas for the cryptocurrency industry, constitutes long-term structural positive factors. While these policy changes may not directly create new investment demand, they will further solidify Bitcoin’s holding structure and reduce volatility caused by policy uncertainty.

The discussion of establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the US also carries profound symbolic significance. It marks Bitcoin’s gradual evolution from an investment asset to a national-level reserve asset, which will strengthen long-term holding confidence.

Valuation Outlook: Three Scenarios from Conservative to Optimistic

Ark Invest’s valuation model outlines three clear future paths for Bitcoin. In the conservative scenario, the target price by 2030 is about $300,000, mainly based on Bitcoin’s value storage function as “digital gold”; in the baseline scenario, the target price is about $710,000, considering gradual market acceptance; and in the most optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.5 million, driven by full penetration of institutional capital and deeper market consensus.

Puell emphasized that the true growth driver comes from the scale of institutional capital entering the market. When this force is fully unleashed, Bitcoin’s appreciation potential will far exceed current expectations.

Long-term Perspective on Maturation and Transformation

Ark Invest’s core positioning always focuses on a 5-year long-term view rather than short-term price predictions. Within this timeframe, Bitcoin is transforming into a “less volatile, widely held institutional asset.” The profound significance of this shift even surpasses any single price figure.

The arrival of a bull year, combined with institutional entry and regulatory clarity, is pushing Bitcoin toward a more mature and stable development stage. Whether early investors holding for over 10 years taking profits at highs, or institutional capital aggressively deploying through ETFs and reserve companies, all are simultaneously driving the market toward greater efficiency and rationality. For long-term believers in Bitcoin’s prospects, the true meaning of a bull year lies in the fundamental upgrade of market structure.